Mayor Franziska Giffey was seen as a hope for the SPD. After the plagiarism scandal and a breakdown in elections, she is fighting for office on Sunday. Why she could keep that despite defeat.

“Poor, but sexy” – that’s what the former mayor of Berlin said Klaus Wowereit (SPD) once characterized the German capital. Berlin is no longer poor today – the per capita income is above the national average, the economy has grown significantly in recent years; Berlin is sexy, say naughty tongues, only for big city tourists, creative freelancers and hipsters from the start-up scene.

But Berlin has never shed its reputation as a bureaucratic city of chaos. And since the election full of glitches a year and a half ago, she’s safer than ever: two elections, a referendum and a marathon on the same day caused queues in front of the polling stations for hours, missing ballot papers and late voting. Not only the federal states like Bavaria, which are not well-disposed towards the capital, scoffed at it.

That’s why the House of Representatives will be re-elected tomorrow Sunday – with the same candidates, but very likely a different result: According to all surveys, the CDU should emerge as the strongest force from the election this time: According to the ZDF Politbarometer, the Union comes to 25 percent, the SPD to 21 percent and Greens to 17 percent (left: 11 percent; AfD: 10 percent; FDP: 6 percent).

The incumbent mayor Franziska Giffey (SPD) could get the worst result in history – and undercut its negative record from 2021 (21.4 percent).

Giffey, 44 years old, born in the GDR, has long been considered the red star of the future of the SPD – also at the federal level. Her high-altitude flight was prematurely ended by a plagiarism scandal surrounding her doctoral thesis, which not only resulted in her title being revoked, but also in her resignation as Minister for Family Affairs. Just six months later she became Berlin mayor.

The “Mother” of Berlin

In her performances, she often seems formal, not only because of her inclination for costumes – Giffey is overly cheerful, ambitious, embodies the “promise of advancement to the working-class children from the East,” it is often said. In the election campaign, which was dominated by classic Berlin issues such as traffic, housing problems and the inflated administrative apparatus, she presented herself as a caregiver, promising a 29-euro monthly ticket for all public transport and affordable housing.

However, the New Year’s Eve riots in the Neukölln district, which Giffey headed for several years, with 47 injured police officers and 15 firefighters attacked, thwarted her plans: They flushed core CDU issues such as integration, domestic security and the fight against crime into the election campaign – and in the polls the Union ahead of the SPD.

That would also be a severe blow for the federal SPD, which is currently only bobbing around at around 19 percent anyway. Political scientist Julia Reuschenbach from the Freie Universität Berlin does not want to speak of a “complete disaster for the SPD”. “I don’t think there will be a crucial test between Giffey and Chancellor Olaf Scholz,” said Reuschenbach.

REUTERS/Michel Tauntussi

“On the one hand, because Giffey was not responsible for the government in the 2021 election, and on the other hand, because the Berliners themselves are no longer really upset about the repeat election today. They seem to have developed a certain resignation towards bureaucratic dysfunctions in the capital.” This is an advantage for the SPD – the current forecasts would otherwise be even more devastating.

Despite the victory probably no CDU mayor

According to Reuschenbach, Giffey’s place in the party would only be up for debate if the Greens finished second ahead of the SDP. That seemed likely at times in the polls over the past few weeks; the SPD has meanwhile settled in second place.

It is nevertheless unlikely that Berlin will then be governed black. Because Giffey should – despite the defeat – continue the current alliance with the Greens and Left and remain mayor until 2026; CDU and FDP would probably not get a majority. However, the Union will not give up its claim to government, says Reuschenbach.

That was made clear in advance – some CDU MPs even predicted an impending “election theft” on Twitter.

Incidentally, Giffey has already lost a title this year: for three years she was Oldenburg Kale Queen. At the traditional kale and grützwurst dinner, the Berlin political celebrity meeting, her successor was chosen at the beginning of February: Minister of Finance Christian Lindner (FDP).