New 2024 headaches for House Democrats

David Mark

March 31, 07:00 AM March 31, 07:04 AM

Three months into the 118th Congress, seven House members are looking for promotions to the Senate. And in two cases, the candidates are causing political headaches for House Democrats, as the departure of battle-tested incumbents means their seats are now up for grabs.

Both are class of 2018 members, Reps. Katie Porter (D-CA) and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), political foot soldiers in an army of House Democrats who that year beat incumbent Republicans and helped their party win House control midway through former President Donald Trump’s single White House term. Their 2024 Senate bids practically guarantee Democrats and allies will need to spend tens of millions of dollars to defend these House districts, in which Porter and Slotkin would otherwise have been the favorites to win again.

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It’s part of a broader 2024 battle for the House, where Republicans hold the House majority by a narrow 222-213 edge. Democrats are aiming to win back control of the chamber after a single two-year term, while in the Senate, Democrats are trying to hold on to their majority, currently at a slim 51-49 over Republicans.

Porter, in her effort to win statewide, is among three Democratic House members from California, along with Reps. Adam Schiff and Barbara Lee, seeking the Senate seat of retiring Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D). Porter will leave behind a competitive Orange County House seat in California’s 47th Congressional District. Porter in 2022 won the coastal Orange County and Irvine district 51.7% to 48.3% over Republican Scott Baugh, an attorney and former GOP leader in the state Assembly.

Baugh is running again in a test of how blue traditionally Republican Orange County has turned. Under California’s top-two election system, Baugh is likely to make the November ballot. Democrats angling for a spot on the November ballot include state Sen. Dave Min, a onetime faculty colleague of Porter at University of California, Irvine’s law school, and former Rep. Harley Rouda, who in 2020 lost reelection after one term to GOP Rep. Michelle Steel in a different district whose boundaries no longer exist.

In Michigan, Slotkin is running for Senate to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). Slotkin, a former CIA analyst and Defense Department official, largely has the Democratic Senate primary field to herself. But the House seat Slotkin is vacating, the Lansing area and northwestern Detroit exurbs 7th Congressional District, could flip to Republicans under the right political circumstances.

Slotkin has twice handily won reelection to the House. But the district in 2020 would have backed President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump only 49.4% to 48.9%. So far, the candidate fields on both sides are fluid.

For the other 2024 Senate candidates, their looming departures won’t mean party turnover. In California, Schiff's Los Angeles, Burbank, and Glendale district is solidly blue. So is the Oakland and Berkeley 12th District, which Lee is giving up to wage a Senate bid.

In Indiana, meanwhile, Rep. Jim Banks looks to have the Republican Senate primary field largely to himself, clearing a path for his likely succession of GOP Sen. Mike Braun, who is running for governor in 2024. The northeastern 3rd District, represented by Banks, is deeply Republican: In 2020, Trump would have beaten Biden there 63.9% to 34%. So, the House Republican primary to replace Banks is really the only contest that matters.

It’s a similar theme in the eastern and northern West Virginia 2nd District with Rep. Alex Mooney (R) running for Senate. The district in 2020 would have backed Trump over Biden by more than a 2-to-1 margin, so the real prize is the GOP nomination, which several prominent Republicans are seeking.

And out west in Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is running for Senate against Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Gallego, representing the downtown and western Phoenix 3rd District, has a liberal voting record and is an outspoken Trump critic trying to position himself more toward the center in his statewide bid. Yet Gallego is vacating one of the most Democratic districts in the nation, with a Latino majority, meaning the primary contest is key in deciding who succeeds Gallego in the House.

Key midterm races left outstanding

Ryan King

November 11, 09:40 AM November 11, 09:44 AM

As the dust begins to settle from the midterm election mayhem, dozens of races remain unresolved, leaving lingering questions about how the balance of power will shake out in Washington, D.C.

Democrats managed to snuff out a prophesied red wave, but Republicans remain within striking distance of capturing the House, while the fate of the Senate is up in the air. Dozens of House races, three Senate races, and four governor's races are outstanding, with most of the stragglers hailing from Alaska, Arizona, California, Nevada, and Oregon.

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Here is a breakdown of the top unfinished midterm election races:

Alaska House at-large district

A traditionally Republican-held seat that was vacated by the death of Rep. Don Young earlier this year, Alaska's at-large district was captured by Democrat Mary Peltola in an upset victory over former Gov. Sarah Palin earlier this year. Both Peltola and Palin clashed in a rematch for the midterm cycle, but the outcome remains unclear.

Under Alaska's election system, the top four contenders face off in a ranked choice voting contest if no candidate reaches 50% of the vote. With about 80% of the vote in, Peltola is in the lead with about 47.2% of the vote. Palin is trailing at 26.6%. Republican Nick Begich has 24.2%.

Arizona Governor

In one of the hottest midterm races of the country, Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs have battled it out for Grand Canyon State governor. About 82% of the vote has been tallied, and Lake is trailing Hobbs 49.3% to 50.7%. The election is another test of the traditionally red-leaning state's apparent shift to purple.

Arizona Senate

Seemingly on the precipice of being called, incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) currently touts a 51.7% to 46.1% lead over populist Republican challenger Blake Masters. So far, 82% of the vote has been counted, resulting in reluctance at election desks to call the race that could determine the balance of power in the upper chamber.

Arizona's 1st Congressional District

Republicans had been widely expected to pick up toss-up seats this cycle without ceding GOP-friendly terrain, but they are at risk of doing so in Arizona's 1st Congressional District. Democrat Jevin Hodge has a razor-thin lead over Republican foe David Schweikert with 50.8% to 49.2%, with about a quarter of the votes outstanding.

California's 47th Congressional District

Late in the midterm game, Republicans suddenly became bullish about picking off liberal star Rep. Katie Porter. With just shy of two-thirds of the votes counted, Porter has a slim lead over Republican rival Scott Baugh, with 50.8% to 49.2%.

Colorado's 3rd Congressional District

Stupefying some political observers, conservative firebrand Rep. Lauren Boebert is in serious danger of losing her reelection bid to Democrat Adam Frisch in what could be a major upset in a GOP-friendly district. As of Friday morning, Boebert is leading 50.17% to 49.83%.

On Thursday morning, however, she was effectively dead even with Frisch, trailing by a scant 64 votes with 95% of the vote in before pulling ahead with just under a 400-vote lead later in the day, later growing to a 1,122-vote lead. Under Colorado law, races with a final margin of 0.5% or less head to a recount.

Georgia Senate

It's deja vu in the Peach State. Drawing parallels with the 2020 election, the fate of the Senate could rest on the runoff race in Georgia. Neither Republican Herschel Walker nor incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock garnered enough votes to claim a majority outright. Warnock ran ahead of Walker in the race and won the prior runoff.

Nevada House trio

Democrats in Nevada seemingly gambled on an ambitious redistricting strategy that effectively rendered three of the state's Democratic-held congressional districts competitive. Although Republican Mark Amodei won in the GOP-friendly 2nd Congressional District, the bet appears to have paid off with Democrats holding the narrow edge in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th congressional districts. Between 92% and 94% of the votes in those races have been counted.

Nevada Senate

After suffering a loss in Pennsylvania, Republican hopes of reclaiming the Senate turned to the Silver State race. Republican Adam Laxalt is leading incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto 48.97% to 48%, with about 90% of the votes in, marking a tightening of the race from Thursday morning.

Oregon Governor

Republicans had been keen about breaking the blue dam in the Beaver State this cycle and dedicated considerable firepower to boosting Republican Christine Drazan in her quest to succeed an unpopular outgoing governor. A three-way race that involved Democrat Tina Kotek and independent Betsy Johnson seemingly left an opening. Eventually, the called the race and projected Kotek the winner.