Trump's no-win situation in Georgia Senate runoff

Christian Datoc

December 06, 07:00 AM December 06, 07:01 AM

Football legend Herschel Walker is facing an uphill battle heading into his Tuesday runoff election against incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), but a surprise upset result from Walker could still foreshadow a negative showing for former President Donald Trump in the 2024 cycle.

Trump, the lone top-tier Republican to announce a 2024 White House bid, likely needs a Walker win to maintain his grip over GOP voters and, perhaps more importantly, donors. But party operatives suggest a Walker win would signify support for frequent Trump critic Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA).

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Warnock bested Walker by just a half-percentage point on Nov. 8 but triggered the runoff by failing to garner 50% of the vote. Polls show him maintaining a slight but consistent lead over Walker heading into Tuesday.

Trump hand-picked Walker, a friend of nearly 40 years, to challenge Warnock. Yet the former president's waning popularity and mounting legal troubles prompted Republican leaders to urge him to avoid campaigning in the state in the runoff.

Multiple Republican officials previously expressed concerns that Trump's timing of his presidential campaign announcement, one week after the midterm elections and less than a month before the Georgia runoff, would negatively affect the party's chances of winning back Warnock's seat.

Furthermore, while Trump has avoided the Peach State, Kemp has drastically escalated his stumping for Walker in recent weeks after staying away from the race ahead of the general.

However, he suggested his turn for the former University of Georgia football star was based squarely in opposition to President Joe Biden and Democrats in Washington, not any actual support for Walker or, by extension, Trump.

"When I’m talking about going to Washington, D.C., and fighting for what Georgians need, I’m talking about the border, 40-year-high inflation, astronomical gas prices since Joe Biden took office, and the agenda that Raphael Warnock has supported up there," Kemp said in a recent interview with CNN. "That’s why I’m voting for Herschel Walker."

The Georgia governor, who cruised to an easy reelection himself in November, rose to the top of Trump's GOP hit list in late 2020 by repeatedly rejecting Trump's election fraud claims and Trump's bizarre campaigning in the previous runoff, which often suggested that Republican votes would likely be discounted. Many GOP insiders blame the loss of the Georgia Senate seats on Trump.

Two Georgia GOP operatives told the Washington Examiner that a Walker win would be "a major indictment of Trump" that also solidifies Kemp as the top Republican in the state.

"Donald Trump is responsible for losing Republicans the Senate in 2020. He's responsible for us not taking back both chambers this year," one operative stated. "Let's be honest: Walker now looks like one of the worst candidates ever, and a miraculous upset win Tuesday will be because Georgia voters absolutely love Gov. Kemp, not the former president."

Former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), an ex-Trump critic-turned-backer-turned-critic again, offered a similar analysis in an interview over the weekend.

"People wondered whether [Kemp] would go all in or not. He has. With his staff, he has been out there personally campaigning for Walker," he said on ABC. "He would be the first human being who ever dragged Herschel Walker over the goal line."

Christie further predicted that though the race will be "close," Democrats' ability to hold on to their Senate majority before the Georgia runoff concludes will likely drive down Republican turnout.

"Warnock appears to have momentum. And let’s face it, he came into this with a lead from election night, right? So Walker has got ground to make up," he explained. "What hurts the Republicans the most is you can’t argue now that this is for control. If it was for control, some people who have some misgivings about Herschel Walker would probably be willing to abandon those in order to prevent Democrats from getting control, but now that control is not up, I think that may hurt Republican turnout a little bit."

Still, like Walker, Warnock's campaign is also hampered by a deeply unpopular party leader. Biden's approval rating in the state isn't much better than Trump's, and come Tuesday, it will be 11 months since the president visited Georgia, despite its battleground status. Former President Barack Obama, on the other hand, campaigned heavily for Warnock in the final days of the general and runoff elections.

Biden and White House officials have stated that the president will help Warnock however he's asked, insinuating top Democrats suggested Biden, like Trump, keep away ahead of the runoff.

"I’m going to Georgia today to help Sen. — not to Georgia — Sen. Warnock," Biden cryptically told reporters Friday before leaving the White House for a Democratic fundraiser in Boston. "I’m doing a major fundraiser up in Boston today for our next and continued Senate candidate and senator."

Walker runs Washington outsider playbook in bid to unseat Georgia's Warnock

David M. Drucker

November 21, 06:55 AM November 21, 06:55 AM

Folksy Republican Herschel Walker is leveraging decades of goodwill in Georgia to unseat Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in a December runoff but is running into the same obstacles that left him gasping for air in second place on Nov. 8.

Walker, a former professional football player, is beloved in the Peach State for leading the University of Georgia to a national championship in 1980. But he finished behind Warnock in the initial round of voting in the midterm elections as voters stuck with a Democratic incumbent focused on kitchen table issues and shunned the GOP challenger campaigning as a “warrior for God.”

Republican operatives in Georgia fear Walker is headed for a second, and final, defeat Dec. 6. Chief among their concerns is voter turnout. Will Republicans show up after a disappointing November and with Democrats having already secured the Senate majority? They also worry Warnock is set to smoke Walker in money and manpower amid GOP finger-pointing over midterm election losses.

“It’s not looking good for Herschel,” a Republican insider in Georgia said. “Not having Senate control in play has made this race boring for voters. Most of my nonpolitical friends have completely moved on. Won’t vote. Don’t care.”

“People don’t have as much of a reason to hold their nose this time,” a Georgia GOP strategist added. “If he can narrow the spending disparity, he has a shot.”

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Walker vowed on the eve of the midterm elections he would defeat Warnock with more than 50% of the vote, avoiding a runoff and helping Republicans win the Senate majority. But those rosy predictions, like projections the GOP would win Senate control, fell short. Even with long coattails from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who defeated Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams 53.4% to 45.9%, Walker finished the runner-up, losing to Walker 49.4% to 48.5%.

Doubts about Walker among swing voters and soft Republicans, stemming from the candidate’s checkered past, clearly hampered his Senate campaign — despite his fame in Georgia for his football heroics. Walker’s association with former President Donald Trump, who recruited him to challenge Warnock, also cast a cloud over his Senate bid, as happened in congressional and gubernatorial contests in other states.

Walker is doing his best to turn things around, campaigning across Georgia and raising money prodigiously. The Walker campaign did not respond to a request for comment. But in interviews, mostly with friendly conservative media figures, the 60-year-old first-time candidate is framing the runoff as a choice between Warnock, a political insider who does the bidding of President Joe Biden, and himself, a politician in touch with the majority of Georgia voters.

“I’m getting out, to try to get the people to get behind me, because we need new leadership,” Walker said in a WHD News interview with Laura Ingraham. “He’s [with] Washington and representing no one but Joe Biden. He went to Washington; he forgot about the Georgia people. That’s the reason I decided to run.”

Republicans in Washington also are helping, although not necessarily rowing in the same direction, as the National Republican Senatorial Committee, helmed by Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), and the Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), trade blame for the GOP’s midterm election failures. The feud threatens to drag Walker down, although both organizations are investing significant resources in the race, as is the pro-Walker super PAC "34N22."

The Senate Leadership Fund confirmed it has allocated $16.2 million for the runoff, $14.2 million of which the group is plowing into advertising on television, radio, and digital platforms. The rest is being spent on voter turnout activities. The NRSC declined to disclose its runoff investment. But the committee has deployed key staff to Georgia and is coordinating with the Walker campaign on communications, fundraising, opposition research, and voter turnout.

“Herschel’s drawing big crowds across the state of Georgia. There’s clearly a lot of energy out there to get Herschel across the finish line,” said Chris Hartline, the NRSC communications director, who is in Georgia assisting the Walker campaign.

Walker is charismatic and engaging on the stump. Having never run for office before, he can run against Washington, often a winning strategy. Biden’s unpopularity and voter anxiety fueled by inflation, crime, and border security are assets in his bid to oust Warnock, who advanced to the Senate by defeating appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) in a Jan. 5, 2021, runoff. But Walker had the same advantages on Nov. 8 and still came up short.

As polls showed for much of the campaign, independents, plus some Republicans who were happy to support Kemp, had doubts about Walker.

His past mental health challenges, allegations about his treatment of women, plus his struggle to exude competence on basic issues caused problems for his campaign. Accusations that he paid for ex-girlfriends to obtain abortions years ago added to voters’ uncertainty about Walker. He denied the charges, but as a devoutly anti-abortion candidate, the allegations undercut his authenticity and credibility. Walker’s campaign messaging also has missed the mark.

At every campaign stop, he discusses inflation, crime, border security — he mentions that Warnock has voted for the Biden agenda on the floor of the Senate 96% of the time. But where Warnock, a Christian pastor by trade, focused mainly on how his votes on Capitol Hill addressed issues voters care about most, Walker has campaigned as a culture warrior, delivering speeches dominated by religious allegories and testaments to his Christian faith.

Democrats are arguing, more than any other criticism offered of Walker, that he “simply isn’t up for the job he’s asking Georgians to give him.” That’s what Veronica Yoo, spokeswoman for Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), said in a press release announcing the group’s $13.5 million investment in the runoff.

But Republicans remain hopeful. Fourteen years ago, after Republicans took a beating in the election that put Barack Obama in the White House, then-Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) was forced into a runoff. Despite the GOP having lost eight Senate seats just weeks earlier and voters choosing Obama, at the time a popular figure, as the next president, Chambliss won a December runoff.

“This race is about turnout,” a Republican strategist in Georgia said. “Persuasion is over. Walker has a slight edge for two reasons: Republicans are still angry at the national results. Second, the vaunted Abrams turnout machine has crumbled from infighting and finger-pointing over her loss. Kemp’s machine reloaded under” the Senate Leadership Fund.