Trump's biggest loss this week was in Wisconsin, not New York

Christian Datoc

April 06, 05:15 AM April 06, 05:15 AM

Former President Donald Trump was arraigned in New York on Tuesday on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, but the largest blow to his hopes of reclaiming the White House might have occurred nearly 1,000 miles away in Wisconsin, where liberals secured a majority on the state's Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years.

Hours after Trump became the first American president to face felony charges, Judge Janet Protasiewicz claimed victory over former Justice Dan Kelly, a major Trump supporter and one of the Wisconsin Republicans central to the former president's attempts to throw out the results of the 2020 general election.

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Kelly, who was appointed to the Supreme Court by former Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker in 2016 to replace retiring Justice David Prosser, announced in 2019 his intent to run for a full 10-year term but eventually lost in the April 2020 Supreme Court general election. Following that defeat, Kelly joined the Institute for Reforming Government, a conservative nonprofit group, and served as legal counsel to Wisconsin Republicans' efforts to aid Trump in decertifying President Joe Biden's general election victory.

Wisconsin represented one of the seven states where the Trump legal team and allies launched legal efforts to block the certification of Biden's win, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which at the time was controlled by conservatives, eventually voted 4-3 in December of 2020 to deny Trump's challenge. Conservative Justice Brian Hagedorn sided with the liberals on the court to cast the deciding vote.

This election, Protasiewicz and Democratic allies spent more than $23 million tying Kelly to Trump's failed attempts to overturn the 2020 results. Democratic officials told the Washington Examiner that it's "critical" for the party to win down-ballot elections "so that ultra-MAGA local politicians can't move to pull a 2020 in 2024."

As of Wednesday morning, Kelly trailed Protasiewicz by 10 points with 95% of all votes counted, and he lashed out at his opponent in a Trumpian concession speech Tuesday night.

"I wish that in a circumstance like this, I would be able to concede to a worthy opponent, but I do not have a worthy opponent to which I can concede," he said. "This was the most deeply deceitful, dishonorable, despicable campaign that I have ever seen run for the courts."

Still, there is a chance that Protasiewicz could be impeached and removed from the court by the Republican supermajority in the state senate, which was also solidified Tuesday night after former state GOP Rep. Dan Knodl defeated attorney Jodi Habush Sinykin in the special election to fill the 8th District seat.

Knodl previously hinted at plans to bring an impeachment vote to the floor should Protasiewicz best Kelly, but If Protasiewicz is removed from the bench, Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, would then appoint someone to fill the hole.

Though Trumpworld officials have argued that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's "witch hunt" case would help secure him the 2024 Republican nomination, Wisconsin politicos doubted the impact the indictment would have on the Supreme Court election.

"While this [indictment] may get the juice flowing with some of his supporters, some may have a head shake and shoulder shrug," former state GOP leader Brandon Scholz suggested before Tuesday's race was called. "This indictment thing isn’t really tied into this race. It is a Trump issue."

"We’re focused on winning a critical election in four days that will have long-term consequences for millions of Wisconsinites when it comes to issues like reproductive rights and the strength of our democracy," he said in a statement. "We know voters are focused on this race because it’s an opportunity to return fairness and impartiality to the Wisconsin Supreme Court."

Protasiewicz campaign spokesman Sam Roecker also predicted that voters wouldn't "be distracted by what’s happening in New York."

Trump himself criticized Kelly on Wednesday, claiming on his social media site, Truth Social, that the former justice would have won had he sought an endorsement from the former president.

"Daniel Kelly of Wisconsin just lost his Supreme Court Election. He bragged that he won’t seek Trump’s Endorsement, so I didn’t give it—which guaranteed his loss," he wrote. "How foolish is a man that doesn’t seek an Endorsement that would have won him the Election?"

Trump did endorse Kelly during the 2020 Supreme Court election, which saw him falling to Justice Jill Karofsky by more than 10 points.

The turnout from Tuesday's contest also portends a poor showing for Trump in the state should he be the GOP nominee in 2024.

On Tuesday, 1.84 million Wisconsin voters took part in the Supreme Court election, roughly 800,000 fewer participants than the 2022 midterm election but still the highest mark for a Supreme Court election in a nonpresidential election year since 2008. The liberal-leaning Milwaukee and Madison metropolitan areas accounted for 26% of all votes cast Tuesday, up 4 points from the November 2022 midterm elections, which saw Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) hold off progressive challenger Mandela Barnes.

Three Trump associates admitted to the Washington Examiner that Tuesday's results make Trump's path back to the White House more difficult.

"Wisconsin is a critical swing state," one person said. "If the turnout is similar in November 2024, I don't think any Republican could win there."

Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by roughly 20,000 votes after former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton failed to hold a single campaign event in the state, but he lost the state in 2020 by a similar margin.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre chalked up Tuesday's results to Wisconsin voters prioritizing reproductive rights, with the court expected to hear an abortion case this spring. The new liberal majority all but guarantees the court will overturn a 19th-century abortion ban that was reinstated following 2022's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization ruling.

"Time and time again, the American people have shown their resolute support for reproductive freedom in our democracy, and last night was no different," Jean-Pierre told reporters at Wednesday's White House briefing. "The message from voters has been clear. Americans want the freedom to make reproductive healthcare decisions without government interference. They have been very clear about that."

"We believe that it is important for Americans to have their freedom, including their right to make a decision, and women to have the right to make a decision on their own on their own healthcare, and so the this is the this is an administration that's going to continue to fight for a fight for those freedoms," she concluded.

Indictment offers temporary 'unifier' between Trump and DeSantis as 2024 looms

Katherine Doyle

April 01, 07:00 AM April 01, 07:00 AM

Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R-FL) defense of former President Donald Trump after news broke that a Manhattan grand jury had indicted the former president is expected to ease tensions between the Republican rivals.

“It’s almost a little bit of a unifier right now,” said one Florida GOP operative as the two Republican leaders orient their fire at the elected Democrats prosecuting Trump. “There’s a pause on the beating up of each other. How long does that pause last? I don’t know.”

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Republicans have largely rallied behind Trump after his indictment by a grand jury in Manhattan in a hush money case. The news marked the first time a former president has been hit with criminal charges.

For months, DeSantis has mostly refrained from firing back at Trump, whose attacks on the governor have sought to paint him as an establishment favorite who can’t be trusted.

Trump’s allies have chastised DeSantis for coming to the former president’s defense ahead of the indictment with a reference to “porn star hush money.” And when DeSantis accused the “Soros-backed” Manhattan district attorney of waging a political vendetta against Trump, the governor took heat for failing to use the former president’s name.

That pushback from Trump’s closest followers is to be expected, but DeSantis is targeting a broader audience, the operative said.

“I thought it was a very strong response, to be honest,” this person said, noting it was “playing well” with Republicans in Trump’s home state.

DeSantis’s pledge that his state “will not assist in an extradition request” did not go unnoticed, striking some as opportunistic since Trump has given no indication that he intends to fight extradition.

However, one operative said it would likely prove effective by inoculating the governor against criticism that he had not sufficiently defended the former president. Trump is set to be arraigned on Tuesday.

“If you take yourself out of Florida and you’re a Republican in Iowa or New Hampshire or Nevada or California, what the governor of the state of Florida said is perfectly on point,” this person said.

Still, when the indictment came, this person added that Trump’s team was caught off guard, some raising speculation that the former president’s warnings had accelerated the time frame.

The brief detente between Trump and DeSantis may not last long.

When FBI agents descended on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in search of classified documents last year, DeSantis slammed what he called “the weaponization of federal agencies against the Regime’s political opponents,” arriving at the former president’s defense.

“The Mar-a-Lago raid put a pause on it. And now the indictment has put a pause on it,” the GOP operative said. “But it was only maybe a month after the Mar-a-Lago raid that things resumed.”

Trump faces other legal peril that could complicate the dynamic.

A grand jury in Georgia is investigating the former president for his alleged interference in the 2020 election. A Justice Department special counsel is investigating his alleged mishandling of classified documents and role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, among other inquiries.

“It’s the one-two-three punch,” said the GOP campaign strategist. “This is the first.”

Trump ally Bryan Lanza said the indictment, which has come under criticism from former New York Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, would prove “a disaster” for Democrats. Lanza pointed to Cuomo, who said in a recent radio interview that prosecutors bringing “partisan” cases confirm people’s “cynicism.”

In a sign that DeSantis may be moving closer to an announcement, Florida lawmakers on Thursday introduced draft legislation needed to change the state’s resign-to-run law, a requirement if the governor intends to make a presidential bid before his term expires.