Trump's biggest loss this week was in Wisconsin, not New York

Christian Datoc

April 06, 05:15 AM April 06, 05:15 AM

Former President Donald Trump was arraigned in New York on Tuesday on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, but the largest blow to his hopes of reclaiming the White House might have occurred nearly 1,000 miles away in Wisconsin, where liberals secured a majority on the state's Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years.

Hours after Trump became the first American president to face felony charges, Judge Janet Protasiewicz claimed victory over former Justice Dan Kelly, a major Trump supporter and one of the Wisconsin Republicans central to the former president's attempts to throw out the results of the 2020 general election.

TRUMP ASSOCIATES CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC INDICTMENT BUMP WILL LAST

Kelly, who was appointed to the Supreme Court by former Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker in 2016 to replace retiring Justice David Prosser, announced in 2019 his intent to run for a full 10-year term but eventually lost in the April 2020 Supreme Court general election. Following that defeat, Kelly joined the Institute for Reforming Government, a conservative nonprofit group, and served as legal counsel to Wisconsin Republicans' efforts to aid Trump in decertifying President Joe Biden's general election victory.

Wisconsin represented one of the seven states where the Trump legal team and allies launched legal efforts to block the certification of Biden's win, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which at the time was controlled by conservatives, eventually voted 4-3 in December of 2020 to deny Trump's challenge. Conservative Justice Brian Hagedorn sided with the liberals on the court to cast the deciding vote.

This election, Protasiewicz and Democratic allies spent more than $23 million tying Kelly to Trump's failed attempts to overturn the 2020 results. Democratic officials told the Washington Examiner that it's "critical" for the party to win down-ballot elections "so that ultra-MAGA local politicians can't move to pull a 2020 in 2024."

As of Wednesday morning, Kelly trailed Protasiewicz by 10 points with 95% of all votes counted, and he lashed out at his opponent in a Trumpian concession speech Tuesday night.

"I wish that in a circumstance like this, I would be able to concede to a worthy opponent, but I do not have a worthy opponent to which I can concede," he said. "This was the most deeply deceitful, dishonorable, despicable campaign that I have ever seen run for the courts."

Still, there is a chance that Protasiewicz could be impeached and removed from the court by the Republican supermajority in the state senate, which was also solidified Tuesday night after former state GOP Rep. Dan Knodl defeated attorney Jodi Habush Sinykin in the special election to fill the 8th District seat.

Knodl previously hinted at plans to bring an impeachment vote to the floor should Protasiewicz best Kelly, but If Protasiewicz is removed from the bench, Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, would then appoint someone to fill the hole.

Though Trumpworld officials have argued that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's "witch hunt" case would help secure him the 2024 Republican nomination, Wisconsin politicos doubted the impact the indictment would have on the Supreme Court election.

"While this [indictment] may get the juice flowing with some of his supporters, some may have a head shake and shoulder shrug," former state GOP leader Brandon Scholz suggested before Tuesday's race was called. "This indictment thing isn’t really tied into this race. It is a Trump issue."

"We’re focused on winning a critical election in four days that will have long-term consequences for millions of Wisconsinites when it comes to issues like reproductive rights and the strength of our democracy," he said in a statement. "We know voters are focused on this race because it’s an opportunity to return fairness and impartiality to the Wisconsin Supreme Court."

Protasiewicz campaign spokesman Sam Roecker also predicted that voters wouldn't "be distracted by what’s happening in New York."

Trump himself criticized Kelly on Wednesday, claiming on his social media site, Truth Social, that the former justice would have won had he sought an endorsement from the former president.

"Daniel Kelly of Wisconsin just lost his Supreme Court Election. He bragged that he won’t seek Trump’s Endorsement, so I didn’t give it—which guaranteed his loss," he wrote. "How foolish is a man that doesn’t seek an Endorsement that would have won him the Election?"

Trump did endorse Kelly during the 2020 Supreme Court election, which saw him falling to Justice Jill Karofsky by more than 10 points.

The turnout from Tuesday's contest also portends a poor showing for Trump in the state should he be the GOP nominee in 2024.

On Tuesday, 1.84 million Wisconsin voters took part in the Supreme Court election, roughly 800,000 fewer participants than the 2022 midterm election but still the highest mark for a Supreme Court election in a nonpresidential election year since 2008. The liberal-leaning Milwaukee and Madison metropolitan areas accounted for 26% of all votes cast Tuesday, up 4 points from the November 2022 midterm elections, which saw Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) hold off progressive challenger Mandela Barnes.

Three Trump associates admitted to the Washington Examiner that Tuesday's results make Trump's path back to the White House more difficult.

"Wisconsin is a critical swing state," one person said. "If the turnout is similar in November 2024, I don't think any Republican could win there."

Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by roughly 20,000 votes after former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton failed to hold a single campaign event in the state, but he lost the state in 2020 by a similar margin.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre chalked up Tuesday's results to Wisconsin voters prioritizing reproductive rights, with the court expected to hear an abortion case this spring. The new liberal majority all but guarantees the court will overturn a 19th-century abortion ban that was reinstated following 2022's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization ruling.

"Time and time again, the American people have shown their resolute support for reproductive freedom in our democracy, and last night was no different," Jean-Pierre told reporters at Wednesday's White House briefing. "The message from voters has been clear. Americans want the freedom to make reproductive healthcare decisions without government interference. They have been very clear about that."

"We believe that it is important for Americans to have their freedom, including their right to make a decision, and women to have the right to make a decision on their own on their own healthcare, and so the this is the this is an administration that's going to continue to fight for a fight for those freedoms," she concluded.

Donald Trump arrest: Seven takeaways from the Bragg indictment

Sarah Westwood

April 05, 05:30 AM April 05, 05:31 AM

Donald Trump and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg squared off for the first time Tuesday as details about the unprecedented criminal indictment of a former president finally came to light.

The politically seismic event unfolded in front of crowds and hordes of media, commencing what is likely to become one of the most closely watched criminal proceedings in a generation.

FACT CHECK: DEMOCRATS DISTORT THE RECORD ON GUNS AFTER THE NASHVILLE SHOOTING

Trump and his legal team traveled to New York City for his arraignment on 34 felony charges of falsifying business records, before which he was processed into the system.

Here are seven takeaways from the day.

ALLEGED NEW EVIDENCE

Bragg told reporters after the arraignment that his office obtained new evidence to justify bringing the years-old case against Trump.

Bragg’s predecessor, Cyrus Vance, had worked on the investigation without ever bringing charges. Federal investigators too had examined the circumstances around Trump’s 2016 payments to a woman, Stormy Daniels, who claimed to have had an affair with him, and decided against pursuing an indictment.

Bragg said he had discovered “additional evidence that was not in the office’s possession prior to my time here,” which began last year.

That included, Bragg said, more witnesses. His allusion to new witnesses seemed to address a top critique of his case: that he has relied heavily on Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, as a star witness.

Cohen has previously lied to investigators and has spoken openly about his vendetta against Trump since the two parted ways bitterly during Trump’s presidency. Cohen is considered an unreliable witness.

In a statement of facts document, Bragg also mentioned the existence of audio recordings of conversations between Trump and Cohen that, the DA claimed, bolstered Cohen’s testimony.

However, those tapes have been public knowledge since 2018, when Cohen released at least some of the tapes through his lawyer to media outlets.

It is unclear why, nearly five years later, those tapes could provide support for a case no other law enforcement agency considered worthy of advancing.

“I’m sure that District Attorney Bragg has new facts,” Cyrus Vance Jr., Bragg’s predecessor, said on CNN when pressed on why Bragg may have decided to bring a case that he personally did not.

EXPERTS AREN’T IMPRESSED

Several legal experts panned the structure of Bragg’s argument as a stretch at best.

Containing few surprises, the text of the indictment released Tuesday reflected what public reports had signaled it might: Bragg used a novel hybrid of state and federal laws to bump up a misdemeanor charge, for which the statute of limitations had expired, to a felony.

The lawyers and former prosecutors who populated cable news panels Tuesday generally questioned the strength of Bragg’s claim that Trump violated federal election law.

In a press conference after the arraignment, Bragg said Trump had exceeded federal limits on campaign contributions. Federal investigators have already looked at that possibility, and they decided years ago not to prosecute Trump over it.

Bragg also claimed Trump had violated New York election law, but precisely how was less clear.

Elevating the misdemeanor charges of falsifying business records to the felonies Trump now faces would require Trump to have falsified the records in furtherance of a second crime, and few legal commentators seemed confident that Trump had actually committed any second crime.

In fact, Bragg did not charge him with one; he only referenced the additional alleged illegal activity.

UNANSWERED QUESTIONS REMAIN

How exactly Bragg plans to prove that Trump broke election law remains unclear.

Trump has not been charged with any actual violation of election law. But for Bragg’s indictment to work, prosecutors need to prove that he did commit a campaign violation.

Bragg’s office appears to have amassed substantial evidence regarding the paper trail of payments Trump made to Cohen to reimburse him for the money he’d sent to Daniels and to a tabloid that sat on the story of another woman.

The statute of limitations on improperly recording those payments as legal expenses has long passed.

And the evidence that Trump made those payments specifically to affect the 2016 race is thin, at least as represented in the documents made public Tuesday.

The statement of facts document does contain a line that alleges a political motive from Trump rather than a personal one.

“[Trump] instructed Lawyer A,” Bragg’s team wrote, referring to Cohen, “that if they could delay the payment until after the election, they could avoid paying altogether, because at that point it would not matter if the story became public.”

But the “emails and text messages” Bragg’s team goes on to cite as evidence for that claim do not include Trump; instead, those conversations were between Cohen, the tabloid’s editor, and another lawyer. And according to the court document, those conversations refer only to an effort to delay making the payments in question — not to the election.

TRUMP’S BIG DILEMMA

Trump’s legal team has already laid the groundwork to argue that Trump paid off women claiming to have had affairs with him because he wanted to shield his family from embarrassment, not because he wanted to advance his presidential bid.

That defense would conceivably be stronger if he acknowledged that the affairs did occur and that the disclosure of the affairs would have hurt his wife and young son.

But Trump has never publicly admitted to having sexual relationships with Daniels or the other women who came forward during the 2016 race. In fact, he has consistently denied the Daniels affair.

Hush money payments are not illegal. The only reason Bragg found cause to allege the payments were illegal was to connect them to Trump’s presidential ambitions at the time.

Trump is, in some ways, caught between an incentive to own up to the Daniels affair in order to strengthen his defense against the crux of Bragg’s case and to continue denying the affair to protect his family.

TRUMP DITCHED THE PRESHOW

While news reports had suggested Trump was eager to address the public both before and after his court appearance, Trump instead walked solemnly past reporters and said nothing.

Despite the presiding judge declining to impose a gag order, Trump stayed silent leaving the hearing as well.

Trump’s public demeanor — his stone-faced look and slow gait — seemingly contradicted claims from his aides and allies that he was unfazed by the indictment and even excited by the political opportunity it presents.

Trump returned immediately to Palm Beach, Florida, where he was slated to address supporters Tuesday evening.

BIGGEST MOMENT OF 2024 CAMPAIGN

Trump technically launched his 2024 presidential bid six months ago, but Tuesday was far and away the most attention his campaign has received to date.

Cameras captured his every move for the 24 hours leading up to his court appearance, from aerial footage of his plane preparing to leave Palm Beach on Monday to a live broadcast of the entire 4-mile drive from Trump Tower to the courthouse.

Political commentators dissected everything from his facial expression as he walked into the arraignment to the volume of his voice in the courtroom.

And the state of his primary campaign came under a blinding spotlight during round-the-clock coverage of the event, with few signs of that slowing down after Tuesday.

Whether all this is good for Trump’s chances of securing the GOP nomination remains unclear.

His indictment has so far united the Republican Party around him, at least for the moment; even his top potential rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), decried the criminal charges as unfair.

But as details of the case emerge and public opinion about the indictment solidifies, voters could begin to see the situation as more evidence that Trump comes with too much baggage to succeed as a Republican standard-bearer.

PEOPLE SEE THIS AS POLITICAL

Most people believe the criminal case against Trump is politically motivated — and most people also don’t care.

CNN polling data from this week showed that 76% of people believe politics played at least some role in the decision by Bragg to bring criminal charges against Trump.

The same poll also suggested that a majority of people — 60% of the country and an overwhelming share of Democrats — approve of the indictment.

That lines up neatly with Trump’s overall approval numbers; a poll published shortly after he launched his 2024 presidential campaign found that 59% of people disapproved of him.

All this means most of the people who don’t like Trump welcome the fact that he’s facing criminal charges, even as they recognize the fact that the charges are motivated by partisanship.

Donald Trump arrest: Former president rips 'fake case' and maintains his innocence

Naomi Lim

April 04, 09:32 PM April 04, 09:36 PM

Former President Donald Trump, the 2024 Republican nominee front-runner, was defiant in his first public on-camera remarks since he became the first holder of the office to be charged with a crime.

"I never thought anything like this could happen in America," Trump told supporters Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago, his private resort and club in Palm Beach, Florida. "The only crime I have committed is to fiercely defend our nation from those who seek to destroy it."

HOW BIDEN COULD BENEFIT FROM TRUMP INDICTMENT

Without third wife Melania, daughter Ivanka, and son-in-law Jared Kushner by his side, the former president relitigated the federal Russia investigation, his first impeachment over Ukraine, and the 2020 election.

"This fake case was brought only to interfere with the upcoming 2024 election, and it should be dropped immediately," he said after being introduced as the "next president of the United States."

Observers who wondered whether he would criticize Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and New York state Judge Juan Merchan were not required to wait long during his 25-minute speech, with Trump also scrutinizing special counsel Jack Smith, New York Attorney General Letitia James, and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis in Georgia. The former president additionally had words to say about President Joe Biden, comparing his record with that of his predecessor.

"We are a failing nation. We are a nation in decline," he said. "With all being said, and with a very dark cloud over our beloved country, I have no doubt, nevertheless, that we will make America great again."

Donald Trump, Jr., Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), 2022 Arizona Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, My Pillow CEO Michael Lindell, and Richard Nixon ally Roger Stone were among the guests gathered in the former president's gilded ballroom. The former president earlier spoke to supporters who were not invited or could not attend on the phone.

Trump's indignant demeanor was different from the stone-faced appearance captured by the select photographers permitted in the Manhattan courtroom on Tuesday afternoon. There, he pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up hush-money payments he made before the 2016 election.

As Trump was being booked and fingerprinted, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Trump being arraigned is not "a focus" for President Joe Biden.

"Of course, this is playing out on many of the networks here on a daily basis for hours and hours, so he will catch parts of the news when he has a moment to catch up on the news of the day," she said.

Biden ignored journalists who shouted questions about whether Trump being indicted was "politically motivated" before a meeting with his science and technology advisers at the White House

.

Bragg has been scrutinized for his scant charging document, unsealed during Trump's hearing, even by "Never Trumper" Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT). In a press conference afterward, Bragg defended his case, drawing parallels between it and the federal investigations into Trump's role in Jan. 6, Georgia's inquiry into whether the former president interfered in the 2020 election, and, to a lesser extent, the federal investigation into his handling of classified information. Bragg, too, stood by the delayed action, citing new evidence.

"We cannot and will not normalize serious criminal conduct," he said. "The participants' scheme was illegal. The scheme violated New York election law, which makes it a crime to conspire to promote a candidacy by unlawful means."

Trump's attorneys held their own media opportunity, defending the former president's rhetoric regarding Bragg and Merchan. Trump had earlier shared a doctored image on social media of him swinging a baseball bat at Bragg and told supporters Merchan “hated” him.

“He’s not going after the judge. He noted there were some issues that might cause a conflict,” Trump lawyer Susan Necheles said.

During their return to Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday afternoon, after flying to New York on Monday, Trump's team disseminated a fundraising email with a manufactured mugshot. Trump aides claim they have raised millions since alluding to Tuesday's events two weeks ago while a grand jury was still impaneled.

Trump allegedly had an affair with porn star Stormy Daniels in 2006, shortly after the birth of his son Barron with Melania. Former Trump fixer Michael Cohen, who pleaded guilty to federal criminal charges related to organizing the $130,000 payment to Daniels before the 2016 election, was reimbursed by the Trump Organization for "legal expenses" while the former president was in the White House. Cohen was also involved in "catch-and-kill" deals with the National Enquirer, which paid former Playboy model Karen McDougal $150,000 for her story about an alleged affair with Trump and a Trump Tower doorman $30,000 for his claims the former president had a child out of wedlock. The tabloid never published the articles.

Trump's next court date is in December, when Merchan will rule on any motions filed by the former president's legal representatives. The trial is expected to start in January, the same month as Iowa's Republican primary caucuses.

Donald Trump indicted: Former president likely to speak to cameras amid arraignment proceedings

Ryan King

April 04, 09:36 AM April 04, 09:42 AM

Former President Donald Trump will likely speak to the cameras at the courthouse on Tuesday at some point during the arraignment proceedings in New York, according to his lawyer Chris Kise.

Presiding New York Supreme Court Judge Juan Merchan ruled that news outlets will not be permitted to bring cameras into the chamber during the arraignment, but they are allowed to be stationed outside. Trump is slated to head back to Mar-a-Lago in Florida after the proceedings and deliver a response about the indictment.

TRUMP INDICTED: PEOPLE WAIT OUTSIDE NEW YORK COURTHOUSE AHEAD OF ARRAIGNMENT

Kise revealed ahead of the arraignment that Trump is "resilient, upbeat, and is determined as ever to fight off drivers of injustice," according to CNN.

Trump is reportedly facing more than 30 counts in a case that is believed to revolve around an alleged $130,000 hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election cycle.

The payment was made in exchange for her signature on a nondisclosure agreement to keep quiet about an alleged affair with Trump a decade prior, according to former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen.

Multiple reports indicate that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg was set to pair a misdemeanor charge for falsification of business records about a reimbursement scheme with a campaign finance violation. But the charges remain sealed.

Trump has adamantly denied both wrongdoing and the affair. He has decried the Manhattan case against him as a "witch hunt." Meanwhile, his 2024 campaign has touted a surge in donations as his supporters rally behind him.

He is the first sitting or former U.S. president to be hit with criminal charges. Former President Ulysses Grant was arrested after speeding, but he was not indicted.

Donald Trump indicted: Trump campaign raised 'record' $7 million in three days since indictment, senior adviser says

Brady Knox

April 03, 04:55 PM April 03, 04:55 PM

Former President Donald Trump's presidential campaign raised a "record" $7 million in the three days following his indictment, according to a campaign adviser.

Jason Miller, who serves as a senior adviser to Trump's campaign, announced the apparent record shortly after Trump left for New York City. He will be arraigned in the city on Tuesday.

DONALD TRUMP INDICTED: FORMER PRESIDENT RAISES $4M WITHIN 24 HOURS OF INDICTMENT

"In only three days since news of the indictment, President @realDonaldTrump’s campaign has raised a record $7M," Miller tweeted.

The majority of the money was raised within the first 24 hours. Trump's campaign reported that $4 million was raised that day. About a quarter of the money came from first-time donors, and the average donation was $34.

Trump sent out emails to supporters asking for donations following his indictment. He had previously used speculation over his indictment to raise funds.

WATCH: Crenshaw calls Manhattan DA's case against Trump 'as weak as it can get'

Heather Hunter

April 02, 10:10 PM April 02, 10:10 PM

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) slammed Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Braggs’s case against former President Donald Trump on Sunday as “weak” and politically motivated.

“You don’t have to be a lawyer to look at this case and think it’s on pretty weak grounds," Crenshaw said on CNN’s State of the Union. "This is just very clearly a very weak case."

WATCH: BILL BARR CALLS TRUMP INDICTMENT AN 'ABUSE OF THE PROSECUTIVE FUNCTION'

The Texas congressman added, "Whatever evidence they might have, you’re still talking about the very low level business fraud charges. So I think people need to ask themselves a fundamental question: If this were anyone but Trump, would this DA even take up this case?”

Crenshaw ripped Bragg's record of ignoring other criminal cases and allowing rising crime in Manhattan.

“I mean, this DA has a habit of not taking up cases that are pretty serious, like violent crime and prostitution rings, things like that. But he chooses to take up this one. It feels obvious to a lot of us that it’s politically motivated. It’s personally motivated,” Crenshaw said.

Bash responded to Crenshaw's claims, saying that she was “not sure that’s accurate” to say Manhattan district attorney isn’t bringing up violent crime charges.

During the first days of Bragg's time in office as district attorney, he pushed for finding “alternatives to incarceration,” shorter sentences, avoiding pretrial detention and reducing the number of minors tried as adults in court. Bragg refused to prosecute 35% of major felony cases, including those for murder, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, grand larceny, and grand larceny auto. The city saw a significant increase in crime, with major felonies skyrocketing by 26% between 2021 and 2022, according to the Crime Prevention Research Center.

"To be clear, we don't know what the charges are," the CNN host responded to the Texas Republican about Trump's indictment.

Bash followed up with two questions on whether there are any circumstances in which it would be appropriate to prosecute a former president and whether former presidents should be immune from criminal charges.

Crenshaw said that former presidents should “definitely not be immune from criminal charges,” but reiterated to the CNN host that Bragg's case was "very clearly personally motivated."

DOJ may have evidence showing possible Trump obstruction in classified documents case: Report

Brady Knox

April 02, 04:25 PM April 02, 04:25 PM

The Department of Justice may have more evidence showing former President Donald Trump meddled with classified documents in his possession after he was subpoenaed, a report claims.

Multiple people familiar with the matter told the Washington Post that Special Counsel Jack Smith used emails and text messages from a former Trump aide to build the case that Trump or his team may have meddled with some of the classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate after he was subpoenaed by the government. The sources claim that prosecutors believe Trump personally looked through the contents of some of the boxes of documents following the subpoena.

JOE MANCHIN SAYS TRUMP INDICTMENT 'VERY SAD TIME FOR AMERICA'

Investigators reportedly believe that messages from Molly Michael, a White House aide that followed Trump to Mar-a-Lago after the presidency, may hold significant evidence that Trump meddled with the documents.

Trump's team fervently denied the reports, deriding the entire investigation as a "witch-hunt."

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“The witch-hunts against President Trump have no basis in facts or law," Trump spokesman Steven Cheung said. "The deranged special counsel and the DOJ have now resorted to prosecutorial misconduct by illegally leaking information to corrupt the legal process and weaponize the justice system in order to manipulate public opinion and conduct election interference, because they are clearly losing all across the board.”

The latest revelation comes after Trump's indictment by a Manhattan grand jury in connection with an investigation relating to alleged hush money payments former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen gave to porn star Stormy Daniels.

Donald Trump indicted: Eric Trump denounces Manhattan DA case as 'mockery' of justice system

Brady Knox

April 02, 10:23 AM April 02, 10:23 AM

Eric Trump denounced the Manhattan DA grand jury's recent indictment against his father, decrying it as a "mockery" of the justice system.

Eric Trump appeared on WHD News to discuss the indictment against Donald Trump, which has caused most Republicans to close ranks in defense of the former president. He condemned the legal case against his father while denouncing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and the United States's "two-tier system of justice." He specifically took aim at the state of New York City, saying that Bragg was focusing on Trump while crime was rampant.

DONALD TRUMP INDICTED: PROMINENT REPUBLICANS STAY SILENT ON BRAGG CHARGES

"You guys live in New York. I used to live in New York. I know that city very, very well. I go back to New York, and I said this the other night, you literally can't walk into a Duane Reade and buy Advil because everything's locked up behind plastic because there's so much looting. There's so much crime," he said.

He went on to criticize the difference in treatment between him and First Son Hunter Biden, before thanking Trump's supporters for their actions over the past several days.

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"People are sick and tired of this two-tier system of justice and, and, guys, I have to tell you, people in this country understand it," he said. "The support is unbelievable out there because people understand that we've literally become a banana republic that they've, they've made a mockery out of our legal system in this country."

Trump is expected to turn himself in to New York authorities on Tuesday.

Donald Trump indicted: Can he turn Manhattan grand jury vote into 2024 gold?

W. James Antle III

March 30, 07:22 PM March 30, 07:22 PM

Former President Donald Trump’s long anticipated New York indictment, handed down on Thursday, will test whether he can continue to defy the laws of political gravity.

The rumors of the Manhattan grand jury indictment, stoked by Trump himself, rallied the Republican base behind the former president, who has already announced for 2024.

DESANTIS VS. TRUMP AS THE TORTOISE AND THE HARE

Rank-and-file Republican voters are animated by the belief that the criminal justice system has been weaponized against conservatives. Trump’s argument is that this can be done to him, it could happen to any of his supporters.

“A former president, a current candidate and my friend President Donald J. Trump is a victim of a corrupt and distorted version of the American justice system and history,” Trump attorney Alina Habba said in a statement afterward. “He will be vindicated.”

Trump himself described the indictment as “Political Persecution and Election Interference at the highest level in history.”

“The Democrats have cheated countless times over the decades, including spying on my campaign, but weaponizing our justice system to punish a political opponent, who just so happens to be a President of the United States and by far the leading Republican candidate for President, has never happened before,” he continued. “Ever.”

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is viewed as a partisan figure. The legal case is believed by some experts to not be very strong. The issues at hand — the charges are believed to be related to the payment of hush money to a porn star — are less consequential than those involving Jan. 6, the 2020 election, or Trump’s handling of classified documents.

But there is no guarantee that this will continue to redound to Trump’s benefit. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is not a declared candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. But the expected contender has already displayed a willingness to relitigate Trump’s alleged affair with Stormy Daniels, a story that might not age well with social conservatives. And central to the Florida governor’s appeal is that he is a no-drama alternative to Trump.

Trump, by contrast, is leaning into the drama. He has denounced Bragg as the latest of his Democratic tormentors. He held his first rally since the indictment reports began circulating in Waco, Texas, the site of the deadly federal raid on the Branch Davidians’ compound in 1993.

Nearly any other candidate would have to suspend their campaign in response to a development of this nature. Trump could easily use his mugshot or images of his perp walk to galvanize the Republican base. He has denied reports that he would welcome being shot during an arrest, but many in his orbit are seeking to turn his legal woes into a political windfall.

"The unprecedented election interference from corrupt Socialist District Attorney Alvin Bragg is a political witch-hunt and a dark day for America,” House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) said in a statement.

President Joe Biden and the White House have remained quiet about Trump’s latest legal issues. Many Republicans allege the indictment is designed to aid Biden politically, pointing to the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation during the 2016 campaign.

Trump has survived two impeachments, the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, his 2020 reelection defeat, and his role in a disappointing midterm election result for Republicans with his hold on the base intact.

It is possible that even if an indictment helps Trump in the Republican primaries, it won’t have the same effect in a general election. Trump will carry the distinction of being the first president ever to be indicted, a marker that does not seem likely to enable him to win back suburban voters who swung against him four years ago.

Both Biden and DeSantis are likely to play up the chaotic nature of Trump’s presidency. The headlines surrounding a criminal trial will help feed that narrative.

There is also the possibility that the Manhattan grand jury will only be the beginning of the legal troubles Trump will face, with other investigations brewing elsewhere on multiple fronts.

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But for now, Trump is betting he can benefit politically from a legal development that would doom any more conventional campaign. To him, the grand jury vote is the ultimate proof of his argument that he is the victim of a sustained witch hunt.

The question is how long Republican primary voters will agree.