Republicans hustling to recruit challengers for three vulnerable Democratic Senate seats

Emily Jacobs

March 10, 01:00 PM March 10, 01:04 PM

Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) is working on recruiting electable GOP candidates in must-win swing states in an effort to help Republicans retake the Senate in 2024.

Republicans only need to net two seats to win back the Senate in 2024. Daines and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who sparred with Scott over his 2022 strategy, have their eye on three 2024 races that could hand them the majority. In all three, red-state Democrats are defending their seats.

Daines, who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the party's Senate campaign arm, has been walking a political tightrope — supporting candidates with general election appeal while trying to avoid alienating loyal supporters of former President Donald Trump. The approach marks a shift in strategy from Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), Daines's predecessor as NRSC chief who faced criticism for Republicans' lackluster showing in the 2022 midterm elections.

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Under Scott's leadership, the NRSC remained neutral in the primary process, resulting in controversial candidates costing Republicans a number of critical battleground races in the midterm elections and thus, control of the Senate. Scott has defended his approach even after the stinging losses cost him favor in the Senate Republican conference, arguing that Republican voters, not the NRSC, should determine the party's nominees.

Montana

Daines and McConnell are close to recruiting Tim Sheehy, a decorated military veteran and businessman, to challenge Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in what is expected to be a difficult reelection bid. Tester's decision to run for a fourth term was a major win for Democrats, giving the party a fighting chance in a state Trump carried by over 16 points in 2020.

"Tim is a good friend and a great American," Daines told Axios in a statement Friday.

West Virginia

In addition to Sheehy, Daines and McConnell are persuading West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, a Democrat-turned-Republican, to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) next year. Justice is the only Republican in the ruby-red state who polls competitively against Manchin, a longtime friend-turned-political foe. Manchin, a former governor himself, had endorsed Justice in his crowded 2016 gubernatorial primary race when the latter announced his party switch.

“Obviously, as a governor, he’s starting out in a strong position, but it’s just too early right now,” Daines told the Washington Examiner of Justice in December while declining to disclose if his committee was actively encouraging him to run.

Justice has said he's leaning toward running, while Manchin has maintained that he won't make any decisions until the end of this year. Justice's potential candidacy is believed to be a major concern for Manchin, who wants to avoid engaging in what could become a vitriolic election battle.

Asked about Justice's Senate aspirations in an interview last month with NBC News, Manchin said the governor "seems like he had a great desire [to run]. I’ve known Jim for a long, long time. And I think he’d be the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican primary if he gets in. ... I respect whatever he does, and if we end up running against each other, it’ll be a good, strong, competitive race.”

Ohio

The NRSC is also assessing the Republican primary field in Ohio as candidates begin to enter the race to take on Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH). Only one Republican has declared their candidacy thus far, state Sen. Matt Dolan, though others are expected to get in soon.

Republican officials have expressed concern about the potential candidacy of Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH), whose Freedom Caucus background would give him strong credentials with far-right voters.

Triple threat: How three endangered Senate Dems are being put in 'awfully hard' position by GOP

Cami Mondeaux

March 02, 07:45 AM March 02, 07:45 AM

A pair of GOP-led bills making their way through the Senate are putting Democrats in a tough position, especially those who are considered vulnerable and seeking reelection in tough battleground states.

Republicans are taking advantage of their new House majority to advance legislation that forces Senate Democrats into politically uncomfortable votes, putting endangered lawmakers in a bind as they must choose between backing President Joe Biden’s agenda or bucking their own party. That challenge is especially prominent for Democrats who are seeking election in red states, including Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH).

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Senate Republicans are setting up votes on a number of controversial issues, such as environmental, social, and corporate governance, known as ESG, crime, COVID-19 policies, and more. The votes come as Senate Democrats face a tough battle in 2024 as they are tasked with defending 23 seats, with three of those in states former President Donald Trump won in 2020.

One such bill is a challenge to the Biden administration’s rule that allows fiduciaries to prioritize ESG when considering investment decisions for retirees. The Senate passed a bill overturning such a measure on Wednesday, with both Manchin and Tester joining Republicans. Brown voted against it.

Another bill making its way through the Senate is a proposal to strike down an overhaul of D.C.'s century-old criminal code, which softens the punishment for homicide, robberies, and carjackings. Manchin said he would also join Republicans on that bill, paving the way for the bill to pass the upper chamber with bipartisan support.

"These are awfully hard votes to explain [to voters]," Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD) told Axios.

Tester has not yet indicated whether he’ll vote to overturn the criminal code, telling reporters on Tuesday he still has to “look at it … I just don’t know what it does.” However, Sen. Angus King (I-ME) said he would “likely” vote for it, possibly giving Republicans another win.

Republicans are poised to hand Biden several more losses over the coming months as lawmakers advance legislation with support from a small group of Democrats, including a resolution from Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KY) that effectively ends the federal COVID-19 emergency before Biden’s proposed expiration in May.