Could Biden's underwhelming lead against minor primary foes open door to others?

Haisten Willis

May 03, 04:00 AM May 03, 04:00 AM

President Joe Biden may yet face a tougher-than-expected primary campaign before turning attention to his Republican rivals.

Biden has to date drawn two intraparty challengers, self-help guru Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Neither is considered a serious threat, but they're drawing a surprising amount of support in early polling.

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"I'm just not tracking that," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told the Washington Examiner's Christian Datoc when asked if Biden was annoyed or frustrated that Williamson had jumped into the race.

She then politely brushed off the campaign.

"If I had a — what is it called? — a little globe here, a crystal ball, then I could tell you. A Magic 8 Ball, whatever, if I could feel her aura," Jean-Pierre continued. "But I just don't have anything to share on that."

Yet polling shows Biden faces a tougher challenge than Jean-Pierre's response indicates. An April 27 Emerson College poll found that Biden had earned 70% support, with Kennedy drawing 21% and Williamson 8%.

By historical standards, those are exceptionally high numbers.

Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton all faced only token primary challengers, none of whom received more than 5.5% of the vote, and each of those presidents got a second term.

The primary challengers to George H.W. Bush, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter all saw primary challengers drawing double-digit support, and all lost their reelection bids.

Biden should be bolstered by the fact that neither Kennedy nor Williamson has ever held elected office before, and voters may not be familiar with them.

“My guess is with Kennedy, they are reacting to the name, and I doubt they know much about him or his anti-vaccine crusade,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “They hear Robert. F. Kennedy, and all they can see is Bobby Kennedy. The more they get to know him, I predict the numbers will start to go down.”

On the flip side, if little-known figures can draw 30% support away from Biden, that could signal an opening for a big-name challenger if one is interested.

Biden's approval ratings have been stuck in the low 40s for well over a year, and the same Emerson poll found that just 37% of independents approved of the job he's doing.

The president has alluded to his polling before. He often says in speeches, including at Saturday's White House Correspondents' Association dinner, "Don't compare me to the Almighty; compare me to the alternative," and for now, there is no serious alternative within the Democratic Party.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) could be the best-positioned Democrat to try and has targeted his red state counterparts on several occasions. Last year, Newsom launched a billboard campaign in red states advertising abortion in California. In a series of tweets at the time, he called out Republican Govs. Kristi Noem (SD), Greg Abbott (TX), Mike DeWine (OH), Eric Holcomb (IN), Tate Reeves (MS), Henry McMaster (SC), and Kevin Stitt (OK) for their "restrictive" abortion laws.

However, Newsom has expressed support for Biden's 2024 campaign repeatedly and offered his support to the incumbent president.

There has been some buzz about former first lady Michelle Obama running, though she so far has not answered those overtures. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) has also seen his name mentioned and could flex plenty of financial muscle, but he, too, has repeatedly denied interest in running.

“I don’t think there’s anybody that’s serious that’s actually considering running against Joe Biden because he’s done such a good job,” Pritzker said in March.

Polls have consistently shown that most voters don't necessarily see it that way, with a recent NBC News survey finding that only 26% of respondents wanted a second Biden term, compared to 70% who do not. But in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, Biden narrowly leads former President Donald Trump 43% to 41%. The president may thus be content to sit back for now and let Republicans soak up negative headlines.

Biden also appears ready to skip out on primary debates, which is a common tactic for incumbents and something he shares in common with Trump.

Still, some are calling for a bigger challenge to Biden as the Democratic flagship in 2024.

"I think folks should try to wrap their minds around the possibility that the left could benefit from a challenge to Biden even if the challenger doesn't win the primary," former Bernie Sanders spokeswoman Briahna Joy Gray tweeted April 28. "'But they won't win' is not an argument against the value of a challenge."

Allies of Marianne Williamson lay out game plan to take down Biden

Ryan King

March 04, 08:16 PM March 04, 08:16 PM

Top Democrats have roundly shrugged off bestselling self-help author Marianne Williamson’s nascent campaign, but her allies are optimistic that she has a path for an upset.

Keenly aware of the uphill battle before them, Williamson’s team is banking on President Joe Biden’s history of fumbling in early primary states as well as her charisma, in order to undercut his expected coronation. Williamson became the first higher-profile Democrat to officially jump into the 2024 Democratic field Saturday.

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“I love a longshot candidate,” Carlos Cardona, the New Hampshire state director for the Williamson campaign, told the Washington Examiner. “They keep calling her a long shot, but it's because they're scared of the system that she's gonna disrupt. We know that underdogs perform very well, especially in the first primary states.”

Cardona sees the Granite State as a golden opportunity for Williamson given Biden’s recent push to dethrone it from its perch as the first Democratic primary election state. Local leaders have pushed back hard, but the Democratic National Committee appears poised to supplant it with South Carolina nonetheless.

“Joe Biden has made it very crystal clear that New Hampshire is not a priority to him. So I think Granite Staters are opening their hearts up to the possibility of other candidates coming into the Granite State,” he said.

Biden clinched a lackluster fifth place in New Hampshire in the 2020 primary. His campaign appeared to be on life support afterward until the South Carolina election, a state now poised to lead off the primary process.

After the Palmetto State, the Democratic primary is then set to turn to New Hampshire and Nevada, which are jointly slated to be the second primary election.

“Joe Biden doesn't have the energy. The Republicans don't have the same amount of energy as someone like that. So she can bring the people out and she'll be able to win,” New Hampshire state Rep. Jonah Wheeler (D) said.

Her campaign debut was met with hundreds of supporters clustered in Union Station, Washington, D.C. Attendees included YouTubers Krystal Ball, co-host of Breaking Points, and Kyle Kulinski, host of the Kyle Kulinski Show.

Williamson did not mention Biden by name during her speech, but referenced his victory in 2020, contending that while “we didn’t go over the cliff,” the country is “still six inches away from it.” Many in attendance were lukewarm on Biden — not fiercely opposed, but craving someone with more progressive ambitions and charm.

“I think Biden is doing an OK job. But I think Marianne is willing to push it further,” attendee Nathan Russell said. “I think that even if it's Marianne running, then you have someone at least trying to change what's happening.”

“She's bold. And I think that in a political climate that we have today, boldness in the right way is necessary for change,” added attendee Breje Williams.

Supporters also acknowledged that Williamson is entering the political fray as an underdog.

“It's going to be a bit of an uphill [contest],” attendee Liz Beth said. “But you know what Trump got in and that was a surprise. We're open to surprises. This will be a better surprise.”

Despite the odds, they were eager to see the Democratic “establishment” challenged by someone. But not everyone there had an ironclad commitment to her candidacy.

“It’s nice seeing someone from the Democratic Party running against the incumbent president,” Mohammad Aqil said. “I don't think I prefer her over Biden just yet. But I do want to see what she has to say.”

One audience member named Jake, who declined to provide his last name, identified himself as a Biden supporter there for kicks.

“He's a serious person,” Jake said. “Some of the things that she said when she ran in 2020 were a little offputting. I think it's also very weird to be challenging an incumbent Democratic president of your own party.”

In the 2020 cycle, Williamson made a splash for her unorthodox campaign and advocacy for a politics of love. She ultimately dropped out before the nomination primaries and caucuses got underway. She then endorsed Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).

Following her campaign launch Saturday, Williamson will barnstorm South Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan. Biden has yet to declare his reelection bid but has said he “intends” to and is reportedly eyeing an announcement in April.