Trump's biggest loss this week was in Wisconsin, not New York

Christian Datoc

April 06, 05:15 AM April 06, 05:15 AM

Former President Donald Trump was arraigned in New York on Tuesday on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, but the largest blow to his hopes of reclaiming the White House might have occurred nearly 1,000 miles away in Wisconsin, where liberals secured a majority on the state's Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years.

Hours after Trump became the first American president to face felony charges, Judge Janet Protasiewicz claimed victory over former Justice Dan Kelly, a major Trump supporter and one of the Wisconsin Republicans central to the former president's attempts to throw out the results of the 2020 general election.

TRUMP ASSOCIATES CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC INDICTMENT BUMP WILL LAST

Kelly, who was appointed to the Supreme Court by former Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker in 2016 to replace retiring Justice David Prosser, announced in 2019 his intent to run for a full 10-year term but eventually lost in the April 2020 Supreme Court general election. Following that defeat, Kelly joined the Institute for Reforming Government, a conservative nonprofit group, and served as legal counsel to Wisconsin Republicans' efforts to aid Trump in decertifying President Joe Biden's general election victory.

Wisconsin represented one of the seven states where the Trump legal team and allies launched legal efforts to block the certification of Biden's win, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which at the time was controlled by conservatives, eventually voted 4-3 in December of 2020 to deny Trump's challenge. Conservative Justice Brian Hagedorn sided with the liberals on the court to cast the deciding vote.

This election, Protasiewicz and Democratic allies spent more than $23 million tying Kelly to Trump's failed attempts to overturn the 2020 results. Democratic officials told the Washington Examiner that it's "critical" for the party to win down-ballot elections "so that ultra-MAGA local politicians can't move to pull a 2020 in 2024."

As of Wednesday morning, Kelly trailed Protasiewicz by 10 points with 95% of all votes counted, and he lashed out at his opponent in a Trumpian concession speech Tuesday night.

"I wish that in a circumstance like this, I would be able to concede to a worthy opponent, but I do not have a worthy opponent to which I can concede," he said. "This was the most deeply deceitful, dishonorable, despicable campaign that I have ever seen run for the courts."

Still, there is a chance that Protasiewicz could be impeached and removed from the court by the Republican supermajority in the state senate, which was also solidified Tuesday night after former state GOP Rep. Dan Knodl defeated attorney Jodi Habush Sinykin in the special election to fill the 8th District seat.

Knodl previously hinted at plans to bring an impeachment vote to the floor should Protasiewicz best Kelly, but If Protasiewicz is removed from the bench, Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, would then appoint someone to fill the hole.

Though Trumpworld officials have argued that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's "witch hunt" case would help secure him the 2024 Republican nomination, Wisconsin politicos doubted the impact the indictment would have on the Supreme Court election.

"While this [indictment] may get the juice flowing with some of his supporters, some may have a head shake and shoulder shrug," former state GOP leader Brandon Scholz suggested before Tuesday's race was called. "This indictment thing isn’t really tied into this race. It is a Trump issue."

"We’re focused on winning a critical election in four days that will have long-term consequences for millions of Wisconsinites when it comes to issues like reproductive rights and the strength of our democracy," he said in a statement. "We know voters are focused on this race because it’s an opportunity to return fairness and impartiality to the Wisconsin Supreme Court."

Protasiewicz campaign spokesman Sam Roecker also predicted that voters wouldn't "be distracted by what’s happening in New York."

Trump himself criticized Kelly on Wednesday, claiming on his social media site, Truth Social, that the former justice would have won had he sought an endorsement from the former president.

"Daniel Kelly of Wisconsin just lost his Supreme Court Election. He bragged that he won’t seek Trump’s Endorsement, so I didn’t give it—which guaranteed his loss," he wrote. "How foolish is a man that doesn’t seek an Endorsement that would have won him the Election?"

Trump did endorse Kelly during the 2020 Supreme Court election, which saw him falling to Justice Jill Karofsky by more than 10 points.

The turnout from Tuesday's contest also portends a poor showing for Trump in the state should he be the GOP nominee in 2024.

On Tuesday, 1.84 million Wisconsin voters took part in the Supreme Court election, roughly 800,000 fewer participants than the 2022 midterm election but still the highest mark for a Supreme Court election in a nonpresidential election year since 2008. The liberal-leaning Milwaukee and Madison metropolitan areas accounted for 26% of all votes cast Tuesday, up 4 points from the November 2022 midterm elections, which saw Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) hold off progressive challenger Mandela Barnes.

Three Trump associates admitted to the Washington Examiner that Tuesday's results make Trump's path back to the White House more difficult.

"Wisconsin is a critical swing state," one person said. "If the turnout is similar in November 2024, I don't think any Republican could win there."

Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by roughly 20,000 votes after former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton failed to hold a single campaign event in the state, but he lost the state in 2020 by a similar margin.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre chalked up Tuesday's results to Wisconsin voters prioritizing reproductive rights, with the court expected to hear an abortion case this spring. The new liberal majority all but guarantees the court will overturn a 19th-century abortion ban that was reinstated following 2022's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization ruling.

"Time and time again, the American people have shown their resolute support for reproductive freedom in our democracy, and last night was no different," Jean-Pierre told reporters at Wednesday's White House briefing. "The message from voters has been clear. Americans want the freedom to make reproductive healthcare decisions without government interference. They have been very clear about that."

"We believe that it is important for Americans to have their freedom, including their right to make a decision, and women to have the right to make a decision on their own on their own healthcare, and so the this is the this is an administration that's going to continue to fight for a fight for those freedoms," she concluded.

Donald Trump arrest: Seven takeaways from the Bragg indictment

Sarah Westwood

April 05, 05:30 AM April 05, 05:31 AM

Donald Trump and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg squared off for the first time Tuesday as details about the unprecedented criminal indictment of a former president finally came to light.

The politically seismic event unfolded in front of crowds and hordes of media, commencing what is likely to become one of the most closely watched criminal proceedings in a generation.

FACT CHECK: DEMOCRATS DISTORT THE RECORD ON GUNS AFTER THE NASHVILLE SHOOTING

Trump and his legal team traveled to New York City for his arraignment on 34 felony charges of falsifying business records, before which he was processed into the system.

Here are seven takeaways from the day.

ALLEGED NEW EVIDENCE

Bragg told reporters after the arraignment that his office obtained new evidence to justify bringing the years-old case against Trump.

Bragg’s predecessor, Cyrus Vance, had worked on the investigation without ever bringing charges. Federal investigators too had examined the circumstances around Trump’s 2016 payments to a woman, Stormy Daniels, who claimed to have had an affair with him, and decided against pursuing an indictment.

Bragg said he had discovered “additional evidence that was not in the office’s possession prior to my time here,” which began last year.

That included, Bragg said, more witnesses. His allusion to new witnesses seemed to address a top critique of his case: that he has relied heavily on Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, as a star witness.

Cohen has previously lied to investigators and has spoken openly about his vendetta against Trump since the two parted ways bitterly during Trump’s presidency. Cohen is considered an unreliable witness.

In a statement of facts document, Bragg also mentioned the existence of audio recordings of conversations between Trump and Cohen that, the DA claimed, bolstered Cohen’s testimony.

However, those tapes have been public knowledge since 2018, when Cohen released at least some of the tapes through his lawyer to media outlets.

It is unclear why, nearly five years later, those tapes could provide support for a case no other law enforcement agency considered worthy of advancing.

“I’m sure that District Attorney Bragg has new facts,” Cyrus Vance Jr., Bragg’s predecessor, said on CNN when pressed on why Bragg may have decided to bring a case that he personally did not.

EXPERTS AREN’T IMPRESSED

Several legal experts panned the structure of Bragg’s argument as a stretch at best.

Containing few surprises, the text of the indictment released Tuesday reflected what public reports had signaled it might: Bragg used a novel hybrid of state and federal laws to bump up a misdemeanor charge, for which the statute of limitations had expired, to a felony.

The lawyers and former prosecutors who populated cable news panels Tuesday generally questioned the strength of Bragg’s claim that Trump violated federal election law.

In a press conference after the arraignment, Bragg said Trump had exceeded federal limits on campaign contributions. Federal investigators have already looked at that possibility, and they decided years ago not to prosecute Trump over it.

Bragg also claimed Trump had violated New York election law, but precisely how was less clear.

Elevating the misdemeanor charges of falsifying business records to the felonies Trump now faces would require Trump to have falsified the records in furtherance of a second crime, and few legal commentators seemed confident that Trump had actually committed any second crime.

In fact, Bragg did not charge him with one; he only referenced the additional alleged illegal activity.

UNANSWERED QUESTIONS REMAIN

How exactly Bragg plans to prove that Trump broke election law remains unclear.

Trump has not been charged with any actual violation of election law. But for Bragg’s indictment to work, prosecutors need to prove that he did commit a campaign violation.

Bragg’s office appears to have amassed substantial evidence regarding the paper trail of payments Trump made to Cohen to reimburse him for the money he’d sent to Daniels and to a tabloid that sat on the story of another woman.

The statute of limitations on improperly recording those payments as legal expenses has long passed.

And the evidence that Trump made those payments specifically to affect the 2016 race is thin, at least as represented in the documents made public Tuesday.

The statement of facts document does contain a line that alleges a political motive from Trump rather than a personal one.

“[Trump] instructed Lawyer A,” Bragg’s team wrote, referring to Cohen, “that if they could delay the payment until after the election, they could avoid paying altogether, because at that point it would not matter if the story became public.”

But the “emails and text messages” Bragg’s team goes on to cite as evidence for that claim do not include Trump; instead, those conversations were between Cohen, the tabloid’s editor, and another lawyer. And according to the court document, those conversations refer only to an effort to delay making the payments in question — not to the election.

TRUMP’S BIG DILEMMA

Trump’s legal team has already laid the groundwork to argue that Trump paid off women claiming to have had affairs with him because he wanted to shield his family from embarrassment, not because he wanted to advance his presidential bid.

That defense would conceivably be stronger if he acknowledged that the affairs did occur and that the disclosure of the affairs would have hurt his wife and young son.

But Trump has never publicly admitted to having sexual relationships with Daniels or the other women who came forward during the 2016 race. In fact, he has consistently denied the Daniels affair.

Hush money payments are not illegal. The only reason Bragg found cause to allege the payments were illegal was to connect them to Trump’s presidential ambitions at the time.

Trump is, in some ways, caught between an incentive to own up to the Daniels affair in order to strengthen his defense against the crux of Bragg’s case and to continue denying the affair to protect his family.

TRUMP DITCHED THE PRESHOW

While news reports had suggested Trump was eager to address the public both before and after his court appearance, Trump instead walked solemnly past reporters and said nothing.

Despite the presiding judge declining to impose a gag order, Trump stayed silent leaving the hearing as well.

Trump’s public demeanor — his stone-faced look and slow gait — seemingly contradicted claims from his aides and allies that he was unfazed by the indictment and even excited by the political opportunity it presents.

Trump returned immediately to Palm Beach, Florida, where he was slated to address supporters Tuesday evening.

BIGGEST MOMENT OF 2024 CAMPAIGN

Trump technically launched his 2024 presidential bid six months ago, but Tuesday was far and away the most attention his campaign has received to date.

Cameras captured his every move for the 24 hours leading up to his court appearance, from aerial footage of his plane preparing to leave Palm Beach on Monday to a live broadcast of the entire 4-mile drive from Trump Tower to the courthouse.

Political commentators dissected everything from his facial expression as he walked into the arraignment to the volume of his voice in the courtroom.

And the state of his primary campaign came under a blinding spotlight during round-the-clock coverage of the event, with few signs of that slowing down after Tuesday.

Whether all this is good for Trump’s chances of securing the GOP nomination remains unclear.

His indictment has so far united the Republican Party around him, at least for the moment; even his top potential rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), decried the criminal charges as unfair.

But as details of the case emerge and public opinion about the indictment solidifies, voters could begin to see the situation as more evidence that Trump comes with too much baggage to succeed as a Republican standard-bearer.

PEOPLE SEE THIS AS POLITICAL

Most people believe the criminal case against Trump is politically motivated — and most people also don’t care.

CNN polling data from this week showed that 76% of people believe politics played at least some role in the decision by Bragg to bring criminal charges against Trump.

The same poll also suggested that a majority of people — 60% of the country and an overwhelming share of Democrats — approve of the indictment.

That lines up neatly with Trump’s overall approval numbers; a poll published shortly after he launched his 2024 presidential campaign found that 59% of people disapproved of him.

All this means most of the people who don’t like Trump welcome the fact that he’s facing criminal charges, even as they recognize the fact that the charges are motivated by partisanship.

Donald Trump indicted: Trump campaign raised 'record' $7 million in three days since indictment, senior adviser says

Brady Knox

April 03, 04:55 PM April 03, 04:55 PM

Former President Donald Trump's presidential campaign raised a "record" $7 million in the three days following his indictment, according to a campaign adviser.

Jason Miller, who serves as a senior adviser to Trump's campaign, announced the apparent record shortly after Trump left for New York City. He will be arraigned in the city on Tuesday.

DONALD TRUMP INDICTED: FORMER PRESIDENT RAISES $4M WITHIN 24 HOURS OF INDICTMENT

"In only three days since news of the indictment, President @realDonaldTrump’s campaign has raised a record $7M," Miller tweeted.

The majority of the money was raised within the first 24 hours. Trump's campaign reported that $4 million was raised that day. About a quarter of the money came from first-time donors, and the average donation was $34.

Trump sent out emails to supporters asking for donations following his indictment. He had previously used speculation over his indictment to raise funds.

Donald Trump indicted: Eric Trump denounces Manhattan DA case as 'mockery' of justice system

Brady Knox

April 02, 10:23 AM April 02, 10:23 AM

Eric Trump denounced the Manhattan DA grand jury's recent indictment against his father, decrying it as a "mockery" of the justice system.

Eric Trump appeared on WHD News to discuss the indictment against Donald Trump, which has caused most Republicans to close ranks in defense of the former president. He condemned the legal case against his father while denouncing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and the United States's "two-tier system of justice." He specifically took aim at the state of New York City, saying that Bragg was focusing on Trump while crime was rampant.

DONALD TRUMP INDICTED: PROMINENT REPUBLICANS STAY SILENT ON BRAGG CHARGES

"You guys live in New York. I used to live in New York. I know that city very, very well. I go back to New York, and I said this the other night, you literally can't walk into a Duane Reade and buy Advil because everything's locked up behind plastic because there's so much looting. There's so much crime," he said.

He went on to criticize the difference in treatment between him and First Son Hunter Biden, before thanking Trump's supporters for their actions over the past several days.

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"People are sick and tired of this two-tier system of justice and, and, guys, I have to tell you, people in this country understand it," he said. "The support is unbelievable out there because people understand that we've literally become a banana republic that they've, they've made a mockery out of our legal system in this country."

Trump is expected to turn himself in to New York authorities on Tuesday.

Donald Trump indicted: Poll shows DeSantis losing significant 2024 support since charges

Emily Jacobs

April 01, 09:16 PM April 01, 09:49 PM

Former President Donald Trump's lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis among 2024 Republican presidential primary voters has tripled since news of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's indictment, a new poll found.

The Yahoo-YouGov poll, conducted from Thursday to Friday and released Saturday, showed Trump ahead of DeSantis 57% to 31%, respectively. The 26 point difference is three times the eight percent lead Trump held in the same poll when it was conducted two weeks ago. In that survey, the former president was beating the Florida governor 47% to 39%. DeSantis was ahead of Trump 45% to 41% when the poll was conducted in February.

DONALD TRUMP INDICTED: CAN HE TURN MANHATTAN GRAND JURY VOTE INTO 2024 GOLD?

When the two GOP frontrunners are pitted against a wider, 10 candidate field of declared and potential challengers, Trump maintains steady support while DeSantis's numbers plunge. The former president holds 52% support in the larger primary field, up from 44% in the last poll. DeSantis, meanwhile, dropped from 28% to 21%.

No other declared or potential candidate included in the survey, including former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, polled in the double digits. Haley had 5% support and Pence had 3%, a far cry from Trump's 54% and DeSantis's 21%.

Of the Republicans and GOP-leaning independents polled, 54% chose Trump as their preferred nominee in 2024, while only a third said they would prefer a different candidate. That is a three point jump from the 51% who said they preferred the former president in the last survey. Results were more split when respondents who weren't aligned with Republicans were included, however.

The surge in support appears to indicate what many political observers had predicted after Trump revealed the looming indictment earlier this month: that the former president being charged would boost his 2024 candidacy, especially with Republicans.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who has a complicated relationship with the former president, called the indictment an "enormous political gift" for Trump.

Speaking during an episode of his Verdict with Ted Cruz podcast on Friday, the Texas senator lamented Bragg's indictment as "devastating to the rule of law [and] to the confidence the American people will have in our justice system" before remarking that if he were a Democrat, he "might well report Alvin Bragg to the Federal Election Commission for making the single greatest in kind contribution to a presidential campaign in history."

"Look, Trump put out almost two weeks ago that he was about to get arrested, and he said he was gonna get arrested the next day," he said. "And Bragg delayed and delayed and delayed. A lot of national Democrats were freaking out and were pressuring Bragg, ‘Don't do this, don't do this, don't do this. This will help Trump.’"

Bragg, a Democrat who has refused to prosecute a number of offenses since taking office last January, indicted the former president Thursday on charges related to hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016. The indictment marks the first time a former U.S. president has been criminally charged.

Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer, testified before Congress in 2019 that he paid Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, $130,000 during the 2016 campaign to prevent her from going public about an affair she claimed to have with Trump in 2005. Cohen, who pleaded guilty and served time over the alleged payment, told lawmakers Trump reimbursed him in monthly installments.

Trump has denied any wrongdoing and vowed to fight the charges.

Indictment offers temporary 'unifier' between Trump and DeSantis as 2024 looms

Katherine Doyle

April 01, 07:00 AM April 01, 07:00 AM

Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R-FL) defense of former President Donald Trump after news broke that a Manhattan grand jury had indicted the former president is expected to ease tensions between the Republican rivals.

“It’s almost a little bit of a unifier right now,” said one Florida GOP operative as the two Republican leaders orient their fire at the elected Democrats prosecuting Trump. “There’s a pause on the beating up of each other. How long does that pause last? I don’t know.”

TRUMP INDICTED: BRAGG TELLS HOUSE GOP TO CEASE 'UNLAWFUL POLITICAL INTERFERENCE' IN CASE

Republicans have largely rallied behind Trump after his indictment by a grand jury in Manhattan in a hush money case. The news marked the first time a former president has been hit with criminal charges.

For months, DeSantis has mostly refrained from firing back at Trump, whose attacks on the governor have sought to paint him as an establishment favorite who can’t be trusted.

Trump’s allies have chastised DeSantis for coming to the former president’s defense ahead of the indictment with a reference to “porn star hush money.” And when DeSantis accused the “Soros-backed” Manhattan district attorney of waging a political vendetta against Trump, the governor took heat for failing to use the former president’s name.

That pushback from Trump’s closest followers is to be expected, but DeSantis is targeting a broader audience, the operative said.

“I thought it was a very strong response, to be honest,” this person said, noting it was “playing well” with Republicans in Trump’s home state.

DeSantis’s pledge that his state “will not assist in an extradition request” did not go unnoticed, striking some as opportunistic since Trump has given no indication that he intends to fight extradition.

However, one operative said it would likely prove effective by inoculating the governor against criticism that he had not sufficiently defended the former president. Trump is set to be arraigned on Tuesday.

“If you take yourself out of Florida and you’re a Republican in Iowa or New Hampshire or Nevada or California, what the governor of the state of Florida said is perfectly on point,” this person said.

Still, when the indictment came, this person added that Trump’s team was caught off guard, some raising speculation that the former president’s warnings had accelerated the time frame.

The brief detente between Trump and DeSantis may not last long.

When FBI agents descended on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in search of classified documents last year, DeSantis slammed what he called “the weaponization of federal agencies against the Regime’s political opponents,” arriving at the former president’s defense.

“The Mar-a-Lago raid put a pause on it. And now the indictment has put a pause on it,” the GOP operative said. “But it was only maybe a month after the Mar-a-Lago raid that things resumed.”

Trump faces other legal peril that could complicate the dynamic.

A grand jury in Georgia is investigating the former president for his alleged interference in the 2020 election. A Justice Department special counsel is investigating his alleged mishandling of classified documents and role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, among other inquiries.

“It’s the one-two-three punch,” said the GOP campaign strategist. “This is the first.”

Trump ally Bryan Lanza said the indictment, which has come under criticism from former New York Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, would prove “a disaster” for Democrats. Lanza pointed to Cuomo, who said in a recent radio interview that prosecutors bringing “partisan” cases confirm people’s “cynicism.”

In a sign that DeSantis may be moving closer to an announcement, Florida lawmakers on Thursday introduced draft legislation needed to change the state’s resign-to-run law, a requirement if the governor intends to make a presidential bid before his term expires.