Biden pollster warns of 'paradigm shift' amid GOP gains among black and Latino voters

Katherine Doyle

November 07, 12:45 PM November 07, 12:47 PM

Republicans are faring better with black and Latino voters going into Election Day, a shift that threatens to scramble predictions of a growing Democratic majority bolstered by minority votes.

While black and Latino voters have historically backed Democrats by overwhelming margins, new polling points to a worrying trend for Democrats as the party seeks to hold on to power on Tuesday and in the years ahead.

About 17% of black voters said they intended to vote Republican on Tuesday, according to the latest Wall Street Journal poll. In 2018, just 6% backed Republican candidates, a Pew Research Center analysis showed. WHD VoteCast had former President Donald Trump at 8% in 2020, with the exit polls at 12%.

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With Latino voters, Democrats’ advantage has slimmed to 5 percentage points following an 11-point lead in August. The shift is most pronounced among working-class voters who favored Democrats by 6 points, compared to 26 points for Latino voters with college degrees.

In 2018, 33% of Hispanic voters backed a Republican candidate, compared to 64% who supported a Democrat, a 31-point difference, according to the -NORC VoteCast survey.

Tuesday’s results could upend years of underlying assumptions about the direction of black and Latino voters if the trend holds, John Anzalone told the Wall Street Journal.

“I think that this could be a paradigm-shift election, where Republicans are not only making inroads with the Latino vote, but they’re now making inroads with the African American vote,” said Anzalone, who conducted the survey with Republican Tony Fabrizio.

Anzalone was President Joe Biden’s lead pollster in 2020 when he won Hispanic voters by a 28-point margin over Trump.

The findings come as Democrats fight for survival in states the party sees as pivotal to their chances of holding the Senate next year, as well as winning over Latino voters in future elections.

In Nevada, a predominantly working-class state, incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) has struggled to escape voters’ economic concerns and worries about rising crime.

Her opponent, Republican Adam Laxalt, entered the final week of the race favored to win, according to a forecast by FiveThirtyEight.

'Fairly big swings' may deprive Republicans of Senate majority, pollster says

Daniel Chaitin

November 06, 12:57 PM November 06, 01:14 PM

Polling guru Nate Silver says Republicans have "the edge" in the contest to win control of the Senate, but "fairly big swings" could save the Democrats in the midterm elections.

Two days before Election Day, Silver shared FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the balance of power in Congress on ABC's This Week, signaling a strong performance for the GOP, though one that is not guaranteed on all fronts.

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"In the House, you have a pretty clear front-runner, which is the GOP given the history of the opposition party doing well in the midterms, given the polling, the president's approval rating," Silver said on Sunday.

He then employed a football metaphor. "It's not a guarantee, but it's as though they're kicking a 42-yard field goal. You would expect that to happen most of the time," Silver said.

"The Senate is much closer," he added. "We have the GOP with a 55-45 edge. You can call that a dead heat if you want. You'd rather have 55 than 45. But with six or seven races within a couple points, you could have fairly big swings either way."

Republicans need only a net gain of one seat to dominate the upper chamber, which is currently split with a 50-50 tie that is broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. Competitive races include those in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.

'Good map for Democrats': Nate Silver assesses odds of Republicans successful Senate

Daniel Chaitin

July 03, 01:34 PM July 03, 01:41 PM

Polling guru Nate Silver suggests the struggle involving events to acquire manage of the Senate in the 2022 midterm elections is a "toss-up."

Republicans require a web acquire of only 1 seat to get manage of the higher chamber, which is break up 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris acting as the tiebreaker. But even with President Joe Biden's low poll numbers and growing inflation, it stays a tricky connect with for the GOP.

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Just after noting that FiveThirtyEight's design pegs the Democrats as acquiring a really low (10-15%) probability of preserving regulate of the House, Silver explained it is a "pretty various story" for the Senate. "For 1 issue, it is a very very good map for Democrats," Silver stated Sunday on ABC News's This 7 days.

"Republicans are defending 21 seats, to 14 for Democrats," he additional. "And all the Democrats are in states that Joe Biden won. But Republicans have taken some good challenges with their candidates, electing a number of nominees in crucial races who are both politically inexperienced, like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, or have private scandals, like Herschel Walker in Ga, or have manufactured controversial statements on abortion, like J.D. Vance in Ohio."

The design shows the chances of Republicans mounting to energy in the Senate at "only about 50%," Silver mentioned. "In other terms, it is really a toss-up," he additional. "So, no, I cannot actually buy this just one. In the Household, yeah, the GOP is a crystal clear beloved. But the Senate is anybody's guess."

Republicans are promising some important investigations if they get 1 or each chambers of Congress in the drop. Amongst them are inquiries into Dr. Anthony Fauci, Hunter Biden, and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.