Midterms results: What role, if any, did early voting play in the outcome on Tuesday night?

Asher Notheis

November 09, 11:37 AM November 09, 11:38 AM

Tuesday has come and gone, but people across the United States have been voting for a few weeks via early voting, a process whose effects are being determined in the wake of the 2022 midterm elections.

Early voting has become more popular over the years, with some people arguing with little evidence that it leads to inaccurate polling results. The purpose of early voting, either by mail or by absentee, is to give voters an alternative to voting in person if they are unable to vote on Election Day.

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For 2022, early voting was on track to shatter turnout records from prior midterm cycles, with over 36 million early votes cast by Friday afternoon, information compiled by the U.S. Elections Project indicates. Additionally, 41% of respondents in a survey conducted by Gallup found that they planned to cast their vote early, marking the highest number in a midterm survey since 2010.

Records also showed that Democrats were leading in early and mail-in voting. In the 23 states with party registration data, 45% of early voters were Democrats, and 33.3% of them were Republicans, according to the U.S. Elections Project.

Early voting has led to several races being at a stalemate on Wednesday morning. The Senate race in Arizona between Blake Masters and incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is underway, though Kelly holds the lead at the moment thanks to early voting. The Republican candidate is expected to gain ground once in-person ballots are counted.

The declaration of a winner in Nevada's Senate race has also been delayed thanks to early voting, as Washoe County received a large number of mail and drop-off ballots, according to the Nevada Independent. The delay in a declaration will inevitably lead to some nail-biting, as Adam Laxalt and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) were essentially neck and neck prior to Tuesday's election, according to FiveThirtyEight.