A large-scale investigation conducted by the New York Times shows the extent of the failure of Putin and the Russian military in the war in Ukraine. The investigation is published about a week before the ten-month anniversary of the Russian invasion and the start of the war, and shows the extent of the Russian army’s miscalculations in the perception of the Ukrainian army’s ability, the setting of the inaccurate timetables, the Russian army’s use of old equipment, including equipment from the 1940s, the effect of the suppression of all A challenge to Putin from home – what harmed the conduct of the war and more.The investigation also reveals that at the end of April, the Ukrainian army tried to eliminate General Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Russian army, while he was visiting the fighting front in eastern Ukraine. According to the report, from a line of senior American officials, Gerasimov was not injured in the attack – but dozens of Russian soldiers and officers were killed – which had a considerable effect on the continued sending of senior Russian commanders to the front.

Among other things, it appears from the reports that the Russians set an unlikely timetable for the fighting forces, already with the invasion of Ukraine. As previously reported, the Russians believed that in about three days they would reach the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, and in a short time they would be able to declare their occupation. According to various testimonies from the Russian army, senior officers were instructed to pack their war medals and decorations in their war equipment in Ukraine – so that they could wear them in a ceremony to be held in Kiev.

In interviews with Russian soldiers, it appears that many of them were very surprised by the order placed on them to enter the war in Ukraine, and many also claim that they did not receive any explanation beyond the dry orders. According to the planned schedule – the soldiers who invaded Ukraine from Belarus were planned to arrive in Kiev first.

One of the things written that the soldiers who were on their way from Belarus to Kiev were hurt the most may surprise many, and points to a dramatic failure of the Russians in basic understanding of what is happening on the battlefield on the one hand – and on the other hand also shows the determination and the various means that helped the Ukrainians to hurt them. According to the reports, in one case out of many, the Ukrainian soldiers managed to hit the Russian army forces in the area of ​​Gustomel Airport, not far from Kyiv – after they detected the cellular activity of the Russian soldiers there.

According to the evidence, Ukrainian army soldiers were able to intercept simple cell phone transmissions of Russian soldiers entering combat with their personal devices. Among other things, it is claimed that the Ukrainian army managed to harm the Russian army in Ukraine after it was exposed to Tiktok videos uploaded by the Russian soldiers. “In one of the cases, it took exactly 40 minutes from the moment the video went online until the Ukrainians successfully hit the soldiers in the video.”

It is also claimed that in an unusual meeting between Russian and American officials about a month ago – the Russians conveyed an unequivocal message to members of the Biden administration: no matter how many Russian soldiers they kill or injure – Russia will not give up. A senior NATO official was quoted as saying that Putin is now expressing a willingness to lose up to 300,000 soldiers killed and wounded – three times more than the current estimate regarding the extent of Russian losses. In addition, reference is also made to the possibility that Putin will use nuclear weapons: various sources claim that even now there is no To underestimate this possibility, but the assessment remains that Putin prefers to go to a long and protracted conflict – and not to use nuclear weapons.

The attempted assassination of the commander of the Russian army

In a report from senior American sources it is claimed that at the end of April the Ukrainians tried to eliminate General Valery Gerasimov, commander of the Russian army. The Americans found out that Gerasimov intended to reach the front, but preferred not to share the information with Kyiv for fear that they would try to harm him – which in the eyes of the Americans was seen as a possibility for a dramatic escalation in the conflict.

Despite this, in Ukraine they found out in other ways about Gerasimov’s expected visit to the battlefield – and they actually shared the information with the Americans, revealing to them that they were preparing to harm him. In Washington they asked them to cancel the attack, but in Kiev they were already informed that the attack had been carried out. “Dozens of Russian soldiers and officers were killed in the attack,” the report says, “Gerasimov was not one of them, but since then the Russians have greatly reduced the presence of their senior commanders at the front.”

Precisely against the background of this publication, this morning the media in Russia published special documentation of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu – and it is claimed that he visited the combat front. Despite the publication, at this stage the West is having difficulty determining whether Shoigu, who was written that he “visited soldiers at the front and combat headquarters”, was indeed at the front of the fighting on Ukrainian soil, and it is also unclear when exactly the visit took place.

The publication of Shoigu’s visit comes after it was announced in Russia yesterday that Russian President Putin visited the headquarters of the Russian High Command this weekend, at an unknown location, and was updated on what is happening in the fighting in Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates that it is possible that the publication of the visit comes as an attempt by the Kremlin to strengthen Putin’s image, and the “proof” that he is competent and continues to function and conduct the war, precisely against the background of the fact that in recent weeks he has canceled his participation in several important public events.

Towards a new Russian invasion?

The publication of the failure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine ten months ago comes against the background of a number of claims and reports from the senior leadership in Kiev that Russia is preparing to invade it again at the beginning of 2023. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kolba, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, and Ukrainian Army Commander Valery Zaluzheny also warned in interviews held with them last week that Russia is preparing to carry out a new counterattack against Ukraine in the first months of 2023, possibly in the spring months.

According to them, Russia is preparing a new counterattack, with about 200,000 “fresh” soldiers – with the aim of even trying to recapture Kyiv. Among other things, it is claimed that Russia may carry out an extensive offensive move that will allow them to occupy the entire Donetsk district, and possibly also re-conquer Kharkiv district and other districts.

Despite these claims, it is important to remember that while the problem of soldiers may have been solved in the Kremlin through the recruitment process, the Russian army continues to face a series of other difficult problems. For example, in Moscow they are very far from solving the plight of the junior and middle-level chain of command in the ranks of the army, the plight of armaments – and also large gaps in the military and combat conduct of the forces in Ukraine – which has led to a series of serious failures.

The calls of the Ukrainian officials should not be underestimated, but it is also possible to see these things as an attempt to mobilize the West and maintain support for Ukraine. It is possible that in Kiev they are raising a gear in an effort to obtain another advanced weapon. In addition, it is likely that the Ukrainians are now trying to “unify the ranks” among the Western countries, and prevent the possibility that certain countries will “get tired” of continuing to support them.