Manchin 2024 intrigue keeps West Virginia centrist in limelight

Samantha-Jo Roth

March 05, 06:00 AM March 05, 06:00 AM

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is in no hurry to announce his plans for 2024, keeping the political world on the edge of their seats for the foreseeable future.

While fellow red-state Democratic Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) have announced their 2024 Senate campaigns, all eyes are on the centrist West Virginia Democrat, the only one up for reelection in a state former President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2020 who has not made his intentions known.

The West Virginia Senate race will be one of the most closely watched in the country if Manchin decides to run. Manchin has held the seat since 2010, repeatedly defeating Republican opponents in what has become a deep-red state. Yet Republican strategists see West Virginia as a prime pickup opportunity this cycle.

“Based on raw voter registration changes since 2018, and momentum, it’ll be a presidential election year and West Virginia is guaranteed to go for the Republican nominee — I just don’t see what Manchin’s path forward would be in the U.S. Senate race,” said Conrad Lucas, a former chairman of the West Virginia GOP.

Over the past two years, the senator has at times proven to be a thorn in the Biden administration’s side, by crossing party lines to oppose legislation or block White House appointees. Most recently, he voted with Republicans to overturn a regulation related to environmental, social, and corporate governance that the president is expected to veto.

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He has also continually opposed efforts to eliminate the filibuster, which would make it easier for Democrats to pass legislation. He blocked Biden’s “Build Back Better” social-spending plan agenda but ultimately agreed to a more limited deal, the Inflation Reduction Act, that included new spending on climate and healthcare as well as tax increases on companies.

While he has frustrated progressives' most ambitious priorities, Manchin is the last Democrat standing in high office in West Virginia and is nonetheless a crucial vote in the Senate for party leadership.

“If Joe Manchin doesn’t run, you’re never going to report on a Democratic senator from West Virginia in your lifetime,” said Jon Kott, a former communications director and senior adviser to Manchin.

The West Virginia senator flirted with leaving Capitol Hill following legislative gridlock and a government shutdown but ultimately decided to run for reelection and narrowly win another six years in the Senate. Kott said his boss made that decision at the last minute last cycle.

“He doesn’t even think about being in cycle until the year he has to be in cycle or until he has to file the paperwork,” he said. “In 2018, I’m pretty sure he filed the paperwork the day of or the day before. He hadn’t said he was going to run again prior to filing the paperwork. So, I would not be surprised if you guys waited until January of 2024 for him to make up his mind.”

As the 2024 landscape comes into focus, the senator’s decision about his political future could alter the map and have major implications for the makeup of the U.S. Senate. The senator has repeatedly generated speculation about running for president in 2024 as a third-party candidate, although recently, he told MetroNews in a radio broadcast that “right now,” that is not his intention. Political foes of the senator say he is particularly gifted at generating media attention and dominating news cycles.

“What we know about Joe Manchin is that he always likes attention. He likes to be talked about. He likes to be the center of things,” said Rob Cornelius, a longtime GOP campaign consultant in West Virginia. “How long can he wait to make a decision on what to do, that’s part of his calculus.”

Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) could pose the biggest Republican threat Manchin has faced in his 12-year Senate career. Justice is getting closer to making a decision about whether to pursue a Senate campaign. If Justice does get into the race, he’ll face a primary against Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV).

“I’m not one to jerk people around,” Justice told journalist Julie Mason recently, interpreted as a subtle dig at Manchin, adding that he intends to make a decision in the next few weeks. “I’ve pretty much made my decision on what I’m going to do, and I thought really seriously about it, my family talked about it a bunch of times. We’ll get to a decision here real quick.”

Justice is a favorite of the Republican establishment, with several Republican operatives pointing to polling that shows Justice with a significant advantage over Manchin in a hypothetical Senate matchup; a recent poll showed him up 52% to 42%.

If the two men face one another, it would make for a clash of the titans in West Virginia politics and put two longtime colleagues at odds. Manchin endorsed Justice’s run for governor in 2016 when he was still a Democrat. Justice switched parties to become a Republican in 2017 before winning reelection in 2020.

“Justice and Manchin have a relationship. Joe, I think, was very instrumental in urging him to run for governor in Gov. Justice’s first election, so these two guys know each other, you know, well,” said Mike Plante, a Democratic political consultant in West Virginia. “If they both get into the race, these are two political heavyweights — it would be the World Series, Super Bowl, and Heavyweight Championship all rolled up into one in terms of politics.”

Several Republican operatives said they don’t see a scenario in which Manchin and Justice run against each other.

“Their political worlds in West Virginia are the same. So, it would be very difficult for me to ever imagine them running against each other,” said a longtime Republican operative in West Virginia who wanted to remain anonymous to reflect candidly on the race. “The people that control both of them are exactly the same.”

The Republican operative pointed to Larry Puccio, a longtime friend of the West Virginia senator who has a growing lobbying business in Washington. Puccio ran Manchin’s campaigns for secretary of state and for governor and served as chief of staff in both positions. In 2020, when Justice ran for reelection after leaving the Democratic Party in 2017 to become a Republican, Puccio backed him even when Manchin ultimately supported Justice’s Democratic challenger.

“I can't imagine Larry Puccio being in a situation where you let them run against each other,” the Republican official said. Puccio did not respond to the Washington Examiner’s requests for comment on this story.

Some political experts don’t agree with the assessment that Manchin's and Justice’s political worlds overlap too closely for them to challenge each other and say the two can draw from different donor bases in a Senate matchup.

“I think that people that give to Senate races and people that give to governor’s races, there is some overlap there. But, there’s a national constituency that would give to Joe Manchin if he would run for reelection, and Justice’s contributions have largely been self-funded to a significant degree,” Plante said.

As Manchin contemplates what’s next in his political career, the prospect of the West Virginia senator deciding to retire is one that would be a shock to both political friends and foes.

“I politically despise Joe Manchin, but the dude works his ass off and puts in the work, I will give him that,” said a Republican consultant in Washington who preferred to remain anonymous. “I cannot see a scenario where he decides to retire, but this could be his toughest challenge yet.”

Those who have worked for the senator also echoed similar sentiments.

“The man doesn’t like to take time off. He calls when he’s on vacation at 6 a.m. I don’t know how he’s going to retire — he doesn’t stop working,” Kott said.