The announcement of the agreement to renew relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, after seven years of disconnection and hostility, may indicate nothing less than a new era in the Middle East. Beyond the direct significance of the move on the two biggest rivals on both sides of the gulf, it can also signal the countries’ attitude towards the great powers and their influence in the region. At the same time, while in Israel the issue at once became a tool for cross-party political confrontation, it can be said that the agreement is much larger and would have been signed regardless of Israeli influence and normalization attempts with Saudi Arabia, however serious and extensive they may be.

The role of China and the significance for the US

Unusually for conflicts and political disputes in the Middle East region – the agreement to renew relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran was signed through the mediation of China, at the end of five days of strenuous discussions on the part of the two countries. In recent days, Iran’s National Security Adviser Ali Simkhani and Saudi Minister of State Mossad bin Mohammed Al Iban visited China. This visit was preceded by a dramatic visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Riyadh in December, and an unusual visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Beijing a few weeks ago.

The Chinese involvement in the agreement may teach, first and foremost, how the US is perceived in the region, mainly by Saudi Arabia and perhaps also by the other smaller Gulf countries. From Iran’s point of view, it is clear that the US is very far from a mediating role, but the fact that Riyadh also chose to manage The Chinese crisis shows their dissatisfaction with Washington, especially against the background of the well-publicized tensions between the administration of Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Biden administration.

Over the past period, tensions between Washington and Riyadh have escalated, especially against the background of the rate of global oil production and its price, and American threats to stop the supply of weapons to Saudi Arabia – which depends on it at a time of great security instability in the region, against the background of the war in Ukraine, with the energy crisis that threatened to harm the entire world. Biden’s unsuccessful political visit to the kingdom also certainly did not contribute to improving relations. This situation, along with increasing Chinese involvement in the region – gave Saudi Arabia new cards in the game.

China, for its part, is portrayed as an important factor in the region, which may increase the attraction of the Middle Eastern countries to it – while understanding among all the players that today new solutions must be examined and considered that may not have been on the agenda in the past. Using the new political umbrella provided by Beijing in the region, it may seek to strengthen and deepen its economic and commercial activities – which in any case is on a constant upward trend.

Over the past few years, the Middle East arena has become a relatively secondary space in terms of importance for the American administrations. A process that started back in the days of President Obama, continues despite the bitter rivalry both in the Trump administration, and now under the leadership of President Biden. In the past year it has become clear beyond any doubt that Washington is focused first and foremost on the confrontation with China, especially in the Pacific region, and on the confrontation with Russia and Putin on the soil of Ukraine and in general.

Saudi Arabia was looking for security, Iran wanted a political achievement

Despite the surprise with the announcement of the signing of the agreement, it does not come in a vacuum. Riyadh has been expressing their concerns for their national security for a long time, only because of the continued military strengthening of Iran and the terrorist organizations it operates in the region, and certainly against the background of its continued nuclear progress, just before it officially becomes a nuclear-threshold state.

The uncertainty and lack of solutions evident in the civil war in Yemen, which directly affects neighboring Saudi Arabia, while continuing to arm the Houthi rebel organization, certainly contributed to the decision in Riyadh. It is evident that already three and a half years ago, with the extensive Iranian bombing of the oil facilities of Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, the urgent need to reach an understanding with Iran arose.

While in Israel and the West there is almost unanimity that Iran is not a factor that can be discussed and negotiated with, the Gulf countries behave differently. Precisely due to the security concern about Iran and the desire to avoid escalation, a distinct trend of regional political openness vis-à-vis Iran has been evident in recent years. The United Arab Emirates, for example, Israel’s open friend, maintains diplomatic relations with Iran in an increasing manner. This comes from one main reason: a desire to reduce risks and reduce the national security threats of each and every country.

On September 14, 2019, the Saudis received the clearest signal from their point of view of their inability to continue to rely on the United States in defending themselves against Iran. On the part of the Trump administration – Riyadh’s understanding that it remains solely responsible for its defense has strengthened.

In Iran, in the days when the Western condemnation against it is increasing due to its assistance to Russia in the war in Ukraine and its support for it, there is a motivation to present that it is far from being an isolated country on the world level. Like Saudi Arabia, it is also good for Iran to promote understanding in the region – in a way that will benefit its damaged economy, and one that may also slightly benefit the local public opinion against the government of President Raisi. In recent years, Iran has been working to increase its involvement in many of the Middle Eastern countries, and normal relations with Saudi Arabia certainly cannot harm this.

Israeli storm and empty statements

After the announcement of the renewal of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a statement was issued by a senior political official in Israel, who accompanied Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on his visit to Rome, according to which the agreement was born during the previous government. Things are far from accurate: the official open talks between Tehran and Riyadh began somewhere at the beginning of 2021, even before the inauguration of the Bennett government in June. In addition, in recent weeks there has been an acceleration in the joint negotiations.

Since the beginning of 2021, there have been a series of diplomatic meetings between the parties, until the official announcement at the end of the week. In addition, during the signing of the agreement in Beijing on Friday, Ali Simkhani, Iran’s national security adviser and the one who conducted the negotiations on its behalf, said that the basis for the negotiations that led to the agreement was laid during the visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to China about a month ago.

The former Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman on the talks with the Saudis, about two months before the inauguration of the Bent-Lapid government

#Iran FM spox on Iran-Saudi talks in Iraq: We’ve also seen the reports. Different & some contradictory quotes have been published in the reports. Iran has always welcomed talks w/ #SaudiArabia & considers it in the interest of people of both countries & regional peace & stability pic.twitter.com/B2j06BdruH

— Abas Aslani (@AbasAslani) April 19, 2021

In a cross-party manner in Israel, current and former prime ministers have accused their opponents of being responsible for the “fall” of Saudi Arabia into the hands of Iran. The reality, as you can see, is far and much greater than that. Saudi Arabia and Iran have large and extensive interests, even regardless of whether one day Riyadh will agree to normalize relations with Jerusalem. The agreement does not mean that all the enmity between Iran and Saudi Arabia has disappeared, and they are clearly acting according to the different needs of each of them. Saudi Arabia’s future decision on whether to have relations with Israel is not expected to have anything to do with the state of its relations with Iran, but the state of its needs and interests.

Perhaps the most problematic issue from Israel’s point of view in the agreement is not Saudi Arabia or Iran, but rather China. While Israel has become accustomed to a Middle East that is directly influenced by the United States, its longtime ally – a new Middle East that is increasingly subject to China’s political influence is bad news for Israel. Despite a host of disputes and tensions, relations between Israel and the United States are still good and allow for good coordination, However, this is not the case with China, which is becoming a more prominent player on the field, and especially less predictable and driven by interests that are different from Israel’s.