Yevgeny Prigozhin has been in a dispute with the Russian Defense Ministry for months – and has a strong leverage.

“Ukrainian forces may withdraw from their positions on the east bank of the Bakhmutka River in the face of the destruction of the railway bridge across the river in northeastern Bakhmut on March 3, confirmed by images with geolocation,” writes the US Institute for War Studies (ISW ).

In the meantime, however, the situation in the west of the city is also becoming more and more threatening for the Ukrainian troops – none of the streets from Bakhmut is currently safe from Russian shelling. The fighters of the Wagner mercenary unit and regular Russian troops have already advanced too far and have operatively encircled the city. For the Ukrainian troops, this means that although they can move within the pocket, they are often under fire – even if they retreat.

At the same time, videos of Ukrainian units retreating from Bakhmut are increasingly appearing, at least one convoy was bombed by Russian artillery. How many Ukrainian soldiers are still resisting there cannot be verified. Neither is when (or if) the city, which has been under siege for months, will come under Russian control.

“Then the Crimea falls”

Because if Yevgeny Prigozhin is serious, the situation could actually change: “If Wagner withdraws from Bakhmut now, the entire front will collapse. Then Crimea will fall,” said the head of the Wagner mercenary group in a video published on Telegram over the weekend. “The situation will not be nice for any military formations protecting Russian interests.”

Even if Prigozhin wants to increase his weight in the dispute with the Russian military leadership with these drastic statements – it cannot be denied that his fighters played a key role in the operational encirclement of Bakhmut and that the Wagner group – with heavy losses – bore the main burden.

Prigozhin has become one of the most important actors in the war, both on the battlefield and in the media. On something too important, say observers: He is acting on his own authority, does not shy away from criticizing the Ministry of Defence, with which he has been in a power struggle since the autumn at the latest, and is thus also putting pressure on the Kremlin.He accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov of high treason.

According to experts, this is also the reason why Putin changed the command structure in January. With the dismissal of Sergei Surovokin as commander in Ukraine, he has lost an ally to Prigozhin – this is also a signal to all hardliners critical of the Kremlin, who have become ever louder. The Wagner boss has been complaining about a lack of ammunition since February: “At the moment we are trying to find out what the reason is: Is it just ordinary bureaucracy or betrayal.”

“Blackwater” as a role model

For years, Prigozhin’s fighters – modeled after the US mercenary force “Blackwater” – have served Russian interests abroad, such as in Syria or Mali. Unlike regular soldiers in the Russian Armed Forces, mercenaries earn large rewards for taking part in combat operations, while convicted criminals, whom Prigozhin recruited from Russian prisons, are seen as cannon fodder. Whether it’s about individual blocks of houses or trench systems in Bakhmut – they are sent forward in a first wave to find weak points in the Ukrainian defense and die en masse in the process.

via REUTERS/CONCORD PRESS SERVICE

The experienced mercenaries exploit the identified weaknesses in a second wave of attacks. Ex-prisoners who survive for six months are pardoned. Only a few of the tens of thousands manage to do this – but they also apparently pose a threat to the Russian population – a few weeks ago the Russian government prohibited Prigozhin from continuing to recruit in prisons.

Channels close to the Kremlin are openly discussing what should happen to the pardoned “Wagnerites” once the war is over – or if they actually leave Prigozhin: “They will also return to Moscow. They will return to St. Petersburg, to Krasnodar, to Sevastopol. You will need answers because there will be so many questions. Who will speak to them? What is to be done in this case?” It was said. A significant proportion of these fighters are convicted murderers and rapists.